Reds
OPS1.065Season 0.885
OPS0.850Season 0.810
OPS0.765Season 0.728
Cubs
OPS1.200Season 0.812
OPS1.211Season 0.956
OPS0.888Season 0.740
Top 3 risers per team · bar = Last games OPS · line = season
Facts
- positive: Starter ERA gap 0.96 · Cubs edge (5.12 vs 4.16)
Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Cubs
Reds winOdds 43.7%-2.7pp
41.0%
Cubs winOdds 56.3%+0.3pp
56.6%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Reds win400Cubs win500
- Road profile · Cubs
- Actual47.6%+0.5pp
Team condition
Batting · Mound
Last 5 games · Team totals
RedsCubs
0.220AVG0.239
0.269OBP0.343
2.6Runs / Game5.0
1.0HR / Game1.4
4.2Allowed / Game4.0
Starter Battle
1st–5th · Last 5 games · Team totals
Reds
1W 4L
Cubs
4W 1L
Players
Starting Pitchers
Club probables
Matthew Boyd leads 3 of 4 season metrics
Season
5.12ERA4.16
Gap 0.96
1.49WHIP1.24
7.36K/96.99
3.91BB/92.75
Last 3 gamesvs season
4.58ERA5.09
−0.54 Improved+0.93 Worsened
1.25WHIP1.36
−0.24 Improved+0.12 Worsened
Key Players
Bullpen
Source rank
Top three per team · recent window (grey = season) · tap the count for per-game log
Reds
121Index
Cubs
97Index
Reliability 91%
Reds
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Burke | 2.0 | 0.002.40 | 1.001.28 | 0 | 18 | |
| Tejay Antone | 1.1 | 0.003.35 | 1.501.10 | 1 | 23 | |
| Julian Garcia | 2.0 | 4.503.13 | 2.001.04 | 1 | 34 |
Cubs
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rolison | 3.1 | 5.402.98 | 1.501.26 | 0 | 58 | |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | 2.1 | 0.004.03 | 1.711.28 | 3 | 50 | |
| Javier Assad | 1.0 | 18.003.70 | 2.001.14 | 1 | 30 |
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Reds2.20
- Cubs1.62
Opening 2.15 → current 2.20 — moving toward Cubs.
| Time | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| 04:49 | 2.20 ▴ | 1.62 ▾ |
| 06:26 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Reds2.62
- Cubs1.62
Reds average odds 2.62 · actual win rate 40% / Cubs average odds 1.62 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
5G
Reds
Cubs
2.6
Avg Runsaway advantage
5.07.0
Avg Hitsaway advantage
7.41.0
Avg HRaway advantage
1.40.4
Avg SBeven
0.41.8
Avg BBaway advantage
4.28.6
Avg Kaway advantage
5.20.2
Avg Errorshome advantage
0.4Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredAverage
3.0
Avg ConcededAverage
4.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Reds
6-4
Cubs
W
26.09.18
MLB L.
Reds
2-8
Dodgers
L
26.09.17
MLB L.
Reds
6-2
Dodgers
W
26.09.16
MLB L.
Reds
0-4
Dodgers
L
26.09.15
MLB L.
Reds
1-4
Dodgers
L
Away Team Analysis
5L Streak5L0%
0W5L
Avg ScoredAverage
3.8
Avg ConcededUnstable
6.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Reds
6-4
Cubs
L
26.09.10
MLB L.
Brewers
8-6
Cubs
L
26.09.09
MLB L.
Brewers
4-3
Cubs
L
26.09.08
MLB L.
Brewers
4-3
Cubs
L
26.09.07
MLB L.
Marlins
10-3
Cubs
L
H2H Analysis
Good60%
3W2L
Avg ScoredStrong
6.4
Avg ConcededUnstable
8.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Reds
6-4
Cubs
W
26.08.31
MLB L.
Cubs
5-7
Reds
L
26.08.30
MLB L.
Cubs
17-5
Reds
W
26.08.29
MLB L.
Cubs
8-10
Reds
L
26.07.13
MLB L.
Reds
4-8
Cubs
L
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