Padres
OPS0.992Season 0.644
OPS1.055Season 0.753
OPS1.045Season 0.747
Marlins
OPS1.526Season 0.702
OPS0.836Season 0.780
OPS0.780Season 0.766
Top 3 risers per team · bar = Last games OPS · line = season
Facts
- positive: Starter ERA gap 0.3 · Padres edge (3.69 vs 3.99)
Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with market
Padres winOdds 57.6%0.0pp
57.6%
Marlins winOdds 42.4%+1.0pp
43.4%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Padres win500Marlins win500
- Road profile · Marlins
- Actual41.8%-0.8pp
Team condition
Batting · Mound
Last 5 games · Team totals
PadresMarlins
0.326AVG0.247
0.365OBP0.320
7.0Runs / Game5.0
1.8HR / Game1.2
5.0Allowed / Game4.0
Starter Battle
1st–5th · Last 5 games · Team totals
Padres
5W 0L
Marlins
3W 1D 1L
Players
Starting Pitchers
Club probables
Casey Mize leads 3 of 4 season metrics
Season
3.69ERA3.99
Gap 0.30
1.14WHIP1.24
7.75K/99.67
2.24BB/93.99
Last 3 gamesvs season
5.52ERA9.22
+1.83 Worsened+5.23 Worsened
1.43WHIP2.27
+0.29 Worsened+1.03 Worsened
Key Players
Bullpen
Source rank
Top three per team · recent window (grey = season) · tap the count for per-game log
Padres
91Index
Marlins
128IndexStrong
Padres
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | 1.0 | 0.001.12 | 1.000.85 | 2 | 14 | |
| Adrian Morejon | 1.0 | 9.002.87 | 2.001.07 | 0 | 9 | |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | 1.2 | 5.402.38 | 1.201.09 | 0 | 20 |
Marlins
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dax Fulton | 1.1 | 0.002.88 | 0.751.16 | 2 | 30 | |
| Michael Petersen | 3.0 | 0.003.08 | 1.001.11 | 6 | 60 | |
| Calvin Faucher | 3.0 | 0.003.50 | 1.001.32 | 1 | 43 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Padres1.46
- Marlins2.24
Padres average odds 1.46 · actual win rate 80% / Marlins average odds 2.24 · actual win rate 60%
Last 5 Games
5G
Padres
Marlins
7.0
Avg Runshome advantage
5.012.2
Avg Hitshome advantage
8.61.8
Avg HRhome advantage
1.21.0
Avg SBhome advantage
0.82.2
Avg BBaway advantage
3.28.0
Avg Khome advantage
10.20.4
Avg Errorshome advantage
0.6Home Team Analysis
Hot5W100%
5W0L
Avg ScoredStrong
5.8
Avg ConcededStable
2.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Padres
8-2
Marlins
W
26.09.10
MLB L.
Padres
9-2
Nationals
W
26.09.09
MLB L.
Padres
5-4
Nationals
W
26.09.08
MLB L.
Padres
3-2
Nationals
W
26.09.07
MLB L.
Padres
4-3
NY Yankees
W
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredAverage
4.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
5.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Padres
8-2
Marlins
L
26.09.17
MLB L.
D-backs
3-4
Marlins
W
26.09.16
MLB L.
D-backs
2-4
Marlins
W
26.09.15
MLB L.
D-backs
8-7
Marlins
L
26.09.04
MLB L.
Royals
7-3
Marlins
L
H2H Analysis
Hot80%
4W1L
Avg ScoredStrong
5.2
Avg ConcededStable
2.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Padres
8-2
Marlins
W
26.07.27
MLB L.
Marlins
3-5
Padres
L
26.07.26
MLB L.
Marlins
2-7
Padres
L
26.07.25
MLB L.
Marlins
2-4
Padres
L
25.07.24
MLB L.
Marlins
3-2
Padres
W
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