Cardinals
OPS0.921Season 0.668
OPS0.801Season 0.634
OPS0.906Season 0.822
Nationals
OPS1.042Season 0.741
OPS1.059Season 0.833
OPS1.095Season 0.876
Top 3 risers per team · bar = Last games OPS · line = season
Facts
- positive: Starter ERA gap 0.48 · Nationals edge (3.83 vs 3.35)
Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Nationals
Cardinals winOdds 54.4%+1.2pp
55.6%
Nationals winOdds 45.6%-0.8pp
44.8%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Cardinals win500Nationals win500
- Road profile · Nationals
- Actual41.6%+2.3pp
Team condition
Batting · Mound
Last 5 games · Team totals
CardinalsNationals
0.189AVG0.262
0.273OBP0.330
3.6Runs / Game4.4
0.4HR / Game0.4
4.8Allowed / Game3.8
Starter Battle
1st–5th · Last 5 games · Team totals
Cardinals
2W 3L
Nationals
1W 4L
Players
Starting Pitchers
Club probables
No edge in season metrics
Season
3.83ERA3.35
Gap 0.48
1.24WHIP1.27
6.30K/98.74
2.53BB/94.15
Last 3 gamesvs season
3.57ERA1.56
−0.26 Improved−1.79 Improved
1.19WHIP0.92
−0.05 Improved−0.35 Improved
Key Players
Bullpen
Source rank
Top three per team · recent window (grey = season) · tap the count for per-game log
Cardinals
98Index
Nationals
116Index
Cardinals
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Graceffo | 3.1 | 0.002.56 | 0.601.05 | 4 | 40 | |
| Justin Bruihl | 1.2 | 0.003.54 | 0.601.34 | 1 | 29 | |
| Riley O'Brien | 3.0 | 9.004.21 | 2.331.31 | 4 | 56 |
Nationals
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Tolman | 3.0 | 3.002.38 | 1.001.15 | 2 | 63 | |
| Jack Sinclair | 2.1 | 3.861.69 | 0.860.94 | 2 | 33 | |
| Brad Lord | 1.1 | 20.254.04 | 2.251.26 | 1 | 27 |
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Cardinals1.86
- Nationals1.86
Opening 1.72 → current 1.86 — moving toward Nationals.
| Time | Cardinals | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| 04:04 | 1.86 ▴ | 1.86 ▾ |
| 23:02 | 1.82 ▴ | 1.91 ▾ |
| 06:26 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Cardinals1.69
- Nationals2.12
Cardinals average odds 1.69 · actual win rate 40% / Nationals average odds 2.12 · actual win rate 80%
Last 5 Games
5G
Cardinals
Nationals
3.6
Avg Runsaway advantage
4.46.0
Avg Hitsaway advantage
8.60.4
Avg HReven
0.40.4
Avg SBaway advantage
1.83.8
Avg BBhome advantage
3.08.6
Avg Kaway advantage
8.21.0
Avg Errorsaway advantage
0.4Home Team Analysis
Average3L40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredWeak
2.8
Avg ConcededUnstable
5.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Cardinals
1-9
Nationals
L
26.09.17
MLB L.
Cardinals
5-6
SF Giants
L
26.09.16
MLB L.
Cardinals
3-10
SF Giants
L
26.09.15
MLB L.
Cardinals
2-1
SF Giants
W
26.09.14
MLB L.
Cardinals
3-1
White Sox
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W4L
Avg ScoredAverage
4.4
Avg ConcededAverage
5.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Cardinals
1-9
Nationals
W
26.09.10
MLB L.
Padres
9-2
Nationals
L
26.09.09
MLB L.
Padres
5-4
Nationals
L
26.09.08
MLB L.
Padres
3-2
Nationals
L
26.09.07
MLB L.
Dodgers
7-5
Nationals
L
H2H Analysis
Good60%
3W2L
Avg ScoredStrong
5.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
5.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Cardinals
1-9
Nationals
L
26.04.09
MLB L.
Nationals
1-6
Cardinals
L
26.04.08
MLB L.
Nationals
6-7
Cardinals
L
26.04.07
MLB L.
Nationals
9-6
Cardinals
W
26.03.20
MLB Preseason (US)
Cardinals
5-1
Nationals
W
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