Rays
OPS1.117Season 0.701
OPS1.133Season 0.798
OPS0.818Season 0.700
Red Sox
OPS1.183Season 0.717
OPS1.062Season 0.615
OPS1.083Season 0.906
Top 3 risers per team · bar = Last games OPS · line = season
Facts
- positive: Starter ERA gap 1.65 · Red Sox edge (4.67 vs 3.02)
Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Rays
Rays winOdds 55.3%-1.3pp
54.0%
Red Sox winOdds 44.7%+0.9pp
45.6%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Rays win500Red Sox win500
- Road profile · Red Sox
- Actual49.0%+1.0pp
Team condition
Batting · Mound
Last 5 games · Team totals
RaysRed Sox
0.251AVG0.194
0.339OBP0.291
6.4Runs / Game3.4
1.0HR / Game1.2
2.6Allowed / Game3.4
Starter Battle
1st–5th · Last games · Team totals
Rays
4W 1L
Red Sox
2W 2L
Players
Starting Pitchers
Club probables
Payton Tolle leads all 4 season metrics
Season
4.67ERA3.02
Gap 1.65
1.34WHIP1.07
8.32K/910.45
3.30BB/92.39
Last 3 gamesvs season
1.06ERA2.55
−3.61 Improved−0.47 Improved
0.71WHIP0.96
−0.63 Improved−0.11 Improved
Key Players
Bullpen
Source rank
Top three per team · recent window (grey = season) · tap the count for per-game log
Rays
109Index
Red Sox
114Index
Reliability 98%
Rays
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | 1.0 | 0.001.52 | 0.000.89 | 0 | 7 | |
| Kevin Kelly | 3.0 | 3.002.54 | 1.000.90 | 7 | 40 | |
| Cam Booser | 2.1 | 0.002.13 | 0.000.79 | 2 | 24 |
Red Sox
| Pitcher | App. | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | 1.2 | 0.001.81 | 1.200.83 | 1 | 21 | |
| Alec Gamboa | 1.2 | 0.001.24 | 1.801.03 | 1 | 25 | |
| Aroldis Chapman | 1.0 | 0.001.95 | 2.001.14 | 3 | 25 |
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Rays1.62
- Red Sox2.20
Opening 1.70 → current 1.62 — moving toward Rays.
| Time | Rays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| 22:23 | 1.62 ▾ | 2.20 ▴ |
| 15:27 | 1.70 | 2.10 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Rays1.52
- Red Sox1.89
Rays average odds 1.52 · actual win rate 80% / Red Sox average odds 1.89 · actual win rate 60%
Last 5 Games
5G
Rays
Red Sox
6.4
Avg Runshome advantage
3.48.4
Avg Hitshome advantage
6.21.0
Avg HRaway advantage
1.21.4
Avg SBhome advantage
0.64.2
Avg BBhome advantage
3.28.0
Avg Khome advantage
8.60.4
Avg Errorsaway advantage
0.2Home Team Analysis
Hot80%
4W1L
Avg ScoredStrong
6.4
Avg ConcededStable
2.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Rays
2-4
Red Sox
L
26.09.18
MLB L.
Rays
10-1
Athletics
W
26.09.17
MLB L.
Rays
4-3
Athletics
W
26.09.16
MLB L.
Rays
2-1
Athletics
W
26.09.14
MLB L.
Rays
14-4
Astros
W
Away Team Analysis
Good2W60%
3W2L
Avg ScoredAverage
3.2
Avg ConcededStable
3.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Rays
2-4
Red Sox
W
26.09.18
MLB L.
Rangers
3-4
Red Sox
W
26.09.17
MLB L.
Rangers
7-3
Red Sox
L
26.09.16
MLB L.
Rangers
4-2
Red Sox
L
26.09.07
MLB L.
Orioles
1-3
Red Sox
W
H2H Analysis
Poor0%
0W5L
Avg ScoredWeak
2.4
Avg ConcededUnstable
6.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.19
MLB L.
Rays
2-4
Red Sox
L
26.07.20
MLB L.
Red Sox
6-1
Rays
W
26.07.19
MLB L.
Red Sox
7-6
Rays
W
26.07.18
MLB L.
Red Sox
5-3
Rays
W
26.07.18
MLB L.
Red Sox
10-0
Rays
W
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