NuggetsHome
| PlayerPlayer | GPGP | PTSPTS | REBREB | ASTAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jamal Murray(G) | 3 | 32.3 | 4.7 | 5.7 |
Nikola Jokic(C) | 3 | 21.7 | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| 3 | 20.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
RaptorsAway
| PlayerPlayer | GPGP | PTSPTS | REBREB | ASTAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 30.7 | 8.7 | 6.0 | |
| 3 | 18.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | |
RJ Barrett(F) | 3 | 19.0 | 6.3 | 4.3 |
Sportic Genie
Nuggets win
Take Denver to win, allow for a margin of five or fewer, and look for at least 232 combined points.
Take Denver in the win/loss market.
Jamal Murray’s 32.33 points per game over his last three player games offer a scoring route for that edge.
Toronto’s 51.2 paint points and 14.4 offensive rebounds per game over its last five, however, can test Denver’s home defense.
Nuggets vs Raptors
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
Broadly aligned with market
Nuggets winActual 61.1%
-2.2pp
Raptors winActual 39.1%
+2.4pp
- Games at matching odds
- Nuggets360 gamesRaptors110 games
Odds Flow
- Nuggets1.52
- Raptors2.62
| Time | Nuggets | Raptors |
|---|---|---|
| 11.05 02:57 | 1.52 ▾ | 2.62 ▴ |
| 11.04 22:57 | 1.53 ▴ | 2.60 ▾ |
| 11.04 18:47 | 1.51 ▾ | 2.64 ▴ |
Odds · Last 5 games
- NuggetsAvg 1.45· Win 60%
- RaptorsAvg 1.83· Win 40%
Team condition
Last 5 games
Nuggets
Raptors
119.2
Avg Pointshome advantage
117.440.4
Reboundsaway advantage
41.028.2
Assistsaway advantage
29.011.4
Stealshome advantage
11.014.6
Turnoversaway advantage
14.219.4
Foulshome advantage
27.0Key Players
Key Players
Denver’s scoring ceiling is supported by Jamal Murray’s 32.33 points and 5.67 assists per game over his last three player games, alongside his 53.49% season three-point shooting. Nikola Jokic supplies an interior scoring and rebounding anchor with 21.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game this season. Toronto counters with Scottie Barnes’ 30.67 points and 8.67 rebounds over his last three player games, plus 47.68% season field-goal shooting; Immanuel Quickley adds 6.17 assists per game this season. If Toronto’s rebounding pressure limits Jokic’s work on the glass, Denver’s edge can narrow.
Home Team Analysis
Average2L40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredStrong
120.8
Avg ConcededUnstable
123.8
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.11.03
Nuggets
110-118
Blazers
L
26.10.27
Nuggets
114-134
Golden Warrior…
L
26.10.25
Nuggets
141-135
Pelicans
W
26.04.28
Nuggets
125-113
Timberwolves
W
26.04.21
Nuggets
114-119
Timberwolves
L
Nuggets
Denver’s profile over its last five games features 48.81% field-goal shooting, 38.82% from three, 40.4 rebounds per game and 44.4 paint points. It can score both inside and out, but Toronto’s 14.4 offensive rebounds and 51.2 paint points per game over the same window can contest the interior and create extra chances. Denver also allowed 129 points per game in its last three home games.
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredAverage
111.6
Avg ConcededAverage
116.4
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.11.03
Clippers
118-125
Raptors
W
26.11.02
Lakers
131-125
Raptors
L
26.10.26
Timberwolves
117-94
Raptors
L
26.10.24
Wizards
102-112
Raptors
W
26.05.04
Cavs
114-102
Raptors
L
Raptors
Toronto went 2-3 while scoring 117.4 and allowing 117.2 points per game over its last five, but in its last four away games it went 2-2 with 114 scored and 117 allowed. Its 231 combined points per away game sit below the 234.6 average over its last five, making the venue-specific scoring dip important. Offensive rebounding and paint attacks can pressure Denver at home, but sustaining that production on the road is the question.
H2H Analysis
Hot100%
5W0L
Avg ScoredStrong
120.0
Avg ConcededAverage
116.2
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.03.21
Nuggets
121-115
Raptors
W
26.01.01
Raptors
103-106
Nuggets
L
24.11.05
Nuggets
121-119
Raptors
W
24.10.29
Raptors
125-127
Nuggets
L
24.03.12
Nuggets
125-119
Raptors
W
H2H Analysis
Denver is 4-1 across the five head-to-head meetings, averaging 111.4 points scored and 109.2 allowed for a 2.2-point margin. That supports a Denver win, but the 220.6 combined-point average conflicts with the over outlook. The sample runs from November 5, 2024, to March 21, 2026; current scoring form and Toronto’s offensive-rebounding edge make it uncertain whether those lower totals will recur.