GrizzliesHome
| PlayerPlayer | GPGP | PTSPTS | REBREB | ASTAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 6.7 | |
Cam Spencer(G) | 3 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 9.3 |
| 3 | 18.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 |
PacersAway
| PlayerPlayer | GPGP | PTSPTS | REBREB | ASTAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 18.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | |
| 2 | 22.5 | 2.5 | 6.5 |
Sportic Genie
Grizzlies win
Take Memphis to win, but do not treat a win and a wide margin as the same conclusion.
Pick Memphis to win.
The Grizzlies are 4-1 over their last 5 games, averaging 125.4 points scored and 112 allowed, and are 6-1 for the season.
Indiana has lost its last 5, averaging 106 points, and has shot 31.58% from three over that span.
Watch · But the home favorite is vulnerable if Indiana recovers the 121.5 points per game it averaged over its last 4 away games.
Grizzlies vs Pacers
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
Broadly aligned with market
Grizzlies winActual 66.8%
-0.7pp
Pacers winActual 34.9%
+2.4pp
- Games at matching odds
- Grizzlies398 gamesPacers63 games
Odds Flow
- Grizzlies1.42
- Pacers2.95
| Time | Grizzlies | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| 11.05 04:57 | 1.42 ▾ | 2.95 ▴ |
| 11.05 04:17 | 1.43 | 2.90 ▴ |
| 11.05 02:27 | 1.43 | 2.85 ▾ |
Odds · Last 5 games
- GrizzliesAvg 1.93· Win 80%
- PacersAvg 2.91· Win 0%
Team condition
Last 5 games
Grizzlies
Pacers
125.4
Avg Pointshome advantage
106.048.8
Reboundshome advantage
41.628.4
Assistshome advantage
25.65.6
Stealsaway advantage
7.614.0
Turnovershome advantage
15.425.0
Foulsaway advantage
20.2Key Players
Key Players
Cam Spencer's 9.33 assists per game and 50% three-point shooting over his recent 3 games can turn Memphis's outside and rebounding edge into offense. He also averages 5 assists for the season and has a 7 assist-to-turnover ratio over those recent 3 games. Andrew Nembhard is Indiana's counter: over his recent 2 games, he has averaged 22.5 points and 6.5 assists while shooting 50% from three. If Nembhard sustains that creation and scoring, Memphis's handicap cover is less secure; Indiana's low recent three-point percentage and rebounding deficit can limit that route.
Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredStrong
123.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
122.6
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.11.03
Grizzlies
134-135
Pelicans
L
26.11.01
Grizzlies
136-105
Kings
W
26.10.22
Grizzlies
123-103
Jazz
W
26.04.07
Grizzlies
126-142
Cavs
L
26.04.04
Grizzlies
96-128
Raptors
L
Grizzlies
Memphis's profile over its last 5 games is 125.4 points, 48.8 rebounds and 43.65% from three. Each tops Indiana's 106 points, 41.6 rebounds and 31.58% from three over its last 5 games, giving the home side a clear offensive route. Memphis's 11.2 offensive rebounds per game also create extra chances. Indiana countered with 121.5 points per game over its last 4 away games, so Memphis must sustain its edge while limiting the visitors.
Away Team Analysis
Good2L60%
3W2L
Avg ScoredStrong
121.8
Avg ConcededAverage
115.6
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.10.31
Heat
145-125
Pacers
L
26.10.27
Bucks
110-102
Pacers
L
26.10.26
Nets
109-136
Pacers
W
26.10.22
Pelicans
120-123
Pacers
W
26.04.10
Nets
94-123
Pacers
W
Pacers
Indiana's clearest constraint is its 106 points per game and 31.58% three-point shooting over its last 5 games. Memphis allowed 112 points per game over the same span and averaged 48.8 rebounds, a combination that can make the Pacers' outside-shooting slump costly. Still, Indiana scored 121.5 points per game over its last 4 away games, leaving a route to an offensive rebound. Andrew Nembhard, with 22.5 points and 6.5 assists per game over his recent 2 games, must lead it; that record alone does not erase Memphis's defensive and rebounding edge.
H2H Analysis
Good60%
3W2L
Avg ScoredStrong
122.4
Avg ConcededAverage
114.6
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.03.02
Pacers
106-125
Grizzlies
L
25.10.26
Grizzlies
128-103
Pacers
W
25.02.21
Pacers
127-113
Grizzlies
W
24.12.02
Grizzlies
136-121
Pacers
W
24.01.29
Pacers
116-110
Grizzlies
W
H2H Analysis
Memphis went 4-1 in 5 meetings from 2024-10-15 to 2026-03-02, averaging 124.4 points and a 9.8-point margin; combined scoring averaged 239. That history supports a Memphis win and a high-scoring outlook, but its window differs from the teams' current form. Indiana has averaged 106 points over its last 5 games, yet 121.5 over its last 4 away games. Whether the old scoring pattern repeats depends on the Pacers recovering that road offense.