SabresHome
| PlayerPlayer | GPGP | GG | AA | SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | |
Zach Benson(LW) | 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 |
| 3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
SenatorsAway
| PlayerPlayer | GPGP | GG | AA | SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tim Stutzle(C) | 3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
Drake Batherson(RW) | 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
Dylan Cozens(C) | 3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
SabresHome
09:30Scheduled
SenatorsAway
Sportic Genie
Sabres win
Buffalo offers the steadier winning route: 3-2 over its last five games with 3.2 goals per game, against Ottawa’s 1-4 record and 4 goals allowed per game over its last five away games.
Take Buffalo to win.
The Sabres are 3-2 over their last five and 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
Ottawa’s 4.2 goals per game over its last five gives the Senators a route to overturn that lean if they can trouble Buffalo’s defense.
Watch · But Ottawa has averaged 4.2 goals over its last five, while Tage Thompson scored 5 goals in his last three games and Drake Batherson scored 2.
Sabres vs Senators
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
Broadly aligned with market
Sabres winActual 54.5%
+0.7pp
Senators winActual 45.4%
-0.8pp
- Games at matching odds
- Sabres292 gamesSenators282 games
Odds Flow
- Sabres1.74
- Senators2.03
| Time | Sabres | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| 11.05 03:47 | 1.74 ▴ | 2.03 ▾ |
| 11.04 03:26 | 1.72 | 2.06 |
Odds · Last 5 games
- SabresAvg 1.66· Win 60%
- SenatorsAvg 1.86· Win 40%
Team condition
Last 5 games
Sabres
Senators
17.4
Avg Hitsaway advantage
25.23.2
Avg Goalsaway advantage
4.23.0
Avg Concededhome advantage
4.230.2
Avg Shotshome advantage
25.810.6%
Shooting%away advantage
16.3%1.0
Avg PP Goalshome advantage
0.435.7%
PP%home advantage
12.5%16.2
Blockshome advantage
13.025.8
Faceoff Winsaway advantage
30.811.8
Penalty Minhome advantage
16.0Key Players
Key Players
Tage Thompson’s 5 goals on 18 shots in his last three games give Buffalo its clearest route against Ottawa’s road defense. He has 10 goals in 14 season games and averaged 179 seconds of power-play time in that recent player window. For Ottawa, Tim Stutzle has 1 goal and 4 assists over his last three games, with 192 seconds of power-play time per game, linking the attack. Batherson scored 2 goals and Cozens 3 in that window, providing support. Sustained production keeps a close, high-scoring game plausible, but these player records do not identify today’s starting goaltender.
Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3L
Avg ScoredWeak
2.0
Avg ConcededAverage
3.2
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.10.22
Sabres
1-3
Flyers
L
26.10.13
Sabres
5-3
Panthers
W
26.10.11
Sabres
1-4
Mammoth
L
26.10.09
Sabres
0-4
Stars
L
26.10.07
Sabres
3-2
Wild
W
Sabres
Buffalo creates chances with 3.07 goals and 28.07 shots per game across 14 season games; it has averaged 3.2 goals over its last five. Its season power play has scored 8 times on 47 opportunities (17.0%), improving to 5 on 14 (35.71%) in the recent five-game window. But in its last five home games the Sabres averaged 2 goals for and 3.2 against, going 2-3—a different profile from the broader recent window. They conceded 9 second-period goals in that home sample, leaving that middle frame as a potential fault line even if the special-teams rate holds.
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W4L
Avg ScoredAverage
3.0
Avg ConcededAverage
4.0
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.11.02
Ducks
6-3
Senators
L
26.11.01
Sharks
1-5
Senators
W
26.10.30
Kings
6-5
Senators
L
26.10.28
Golden Knights
4-1
Senators
L
26.10.18
Flyers
3-1
Senators
L
Senators
Ottawa’s clearest constraint is road defense: it went 1-4 while allowing 4 goals per game in its last five away games, and allowed 4.2 per game across its last five overall. That does not make the Senators a weak attack: they also scored 4.2 per game in that overall window and average 3.25 for the season. Their power play has 8 goals on 64 season opportunities (12.5%), and 2 on 16 in the recent five-game window. Their scoring can keep them in the game, but it cannot erase the road record if the goals against remain high.
H2H Analysis
Hot80%
4W1L
Avg ScoredStrong
4.0
Avg ConcededAverage
2.8
DateHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.03
Senators
4-1
Sabres
W
25.12.24
Senators
2-3
Sabres
L
25.10.16
Sabres
8-4
Senators
W
25.04.02
Senators
2-5
Sabres
L
25.03.26
Sabres
3-2
Senators
W
H2H Analysis
Buffalo has the edge in the last five head-to-head games, going 4-1 with 4 goals for and 2.8 against per game; the combined average was 6.8. The current recent-five combined averages are 6.2 for Buffalo and 8.4 for Ottawa, while Ottawa scored 7 goals across its last five away games. The head-to-head record supports the home side, but current scoring makes a repeat of a low-scoring pattern difficult to assume. Regulation-period figures are kept separate from overtime and shootout results.