Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +8.1ppMoney flow: AGF
Horsens winOdds 23.8%
25.0%
DrawOdds 24.8%+8.1pp
32.9%
AGF winOdds 51.4%-1.4pp
50.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Horsens win4Draw76AGF win12
- Road profile · AGF
- Actual35.0%+0.2pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Horsens3.90
- AGF1.79
- Draw3.75
Opening 3.75 → current 3.90 — moving toward AGF.
| Time | Horsens | AGF | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23:31 | 3.90 | 1.79 ▾ | 3.75 |
| 22:46 | 3.90 ▴ | 1.81 ▾ | 3.75 |
| 16:30 | 3.75 ▾ | 1.86 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 11:30 | 3.90 ▴ | 1.81 | 3.75 |
| 23:20 | 3.75 | 1.81 | 3.60 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Horsens4.76
- AGF3.51
Horsens average odds 4.76 · actual win rate 60% / AGF average odds 3.51 · actual win rate 0%
Last 5 Games
Horsens
AGF
60.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
0.0%2.2
Avg Scoredhome advantage
0.80.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-1.4Home Team Analysis
Poor25%
1W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.3
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.29
Danish Superl.
Horsens
2-3
Viborg
L
26.08.23
Danish Superl.
Horsens
2-1
Lyngby
W
26.08.10
Danish Superl.
Horsens
0-2
Brondby
L
26.07.27
Danish Superl.
Horsens
1-1
Nordsjælland
D
Away Team Analysis
5L Streak5L0%
0W0D5L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.14
Danish Superl.
Nordsjælland
2-0
AGF
L
26.08.30
Danish Superl.
Randers
2-1
AGF
L
26.08.21
UEL L.
Benfica
3-1
AGF
L
26.08.15
Danish Superl.
Viborg
2-1
AGF
L
26.08.12
UCL L.
Sabah
4-0
AGF
L
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