Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Ceuta win value +12.0ppMoney flow: Ceuta
Ceuta winOdds 35.8%+12.0pp
47.8%
DrawOdds 28.3%+3.6pp
31.9%
Valladolid winOdds 35.8%-5.5pp
30.3%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Ceuta win67Draw182Valladolid win33
- Road profile · Valladolid
- Actual20.9%-5.6pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Ceuta2.65
- Valladolid2.55
- Draw3.25
Opening 2.75 → current 2.65 — moving toward Ceuta.
| Time | Ceuta | Valladolid | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:04 | 2.65 ▴ | 2.55 ▾ | 3.25 |
| 03:24 | 2.57 ▴ | 2.57 ▾ | 3.25 |
| 02:54 | 2.55 ▴ | 2.65 ▾ | 3.25 |
| 23:02 | 2.45 ▾ | 2.70 ▴ | 3.25 |
| 22:38 | 2.55 ▾ | 2.65 ▴ | 3.25 |
| 04:31 | 2.57 | 2.57 ▴ | 3.25 |
| 23:00 | 2.57 ▾ | 2.55 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 22:30 | 2.65 ▾ | 2.50 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 12:00 | 2.85 ▴ | 2.35 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 00:20 | 2.75 | 2.32 | 3.30 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Ceuta4.85
- Valladolid3.49
Ceuta average odds 4.85 · actual win rate 0% / Valladolid average odds 3.49 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Ceuta
Valladolid
0.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
20.0%0.4
Avg Scoredeven
0.4-2.6
Avg Marginaway advantage
-1.0Home Team Analysis
Poor2L20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Segun Divis
Ceuta
0-2
Celta Vigo B
L
26.08.23
Segun Divis
Ceuta
0-2
Las Palmas
L
26.05.30
Segun Divis
Ceuta
1-0
Albacete
W
26.05.16
Segun Divis
Ceuta
1-4
Malaga
L
26.05.09
Segun Divis
Ceuta
1-1
Castellón
D
Away Team Analysis
Poor0%
0W1D4L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.4
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.31
Segun Divis
Cadiz
1-1
Valladolid
D
26.08.24
Segun Divis
Eibar
1-0
Valladolid
L
26.08.16
Segun Divis
Mallorca
2-0
Valladolid
L
26.06.01
Segun Divis
Almeria
1-0
Valladolid
L
26.05.17
Segun Divis
Santander
4-1
Valladolid
L
H2H Analysis
Poor0%
0W0D2L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
3.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.01.17
Segun Divis
Ceuta
0-3
Valladolid
L
25.08.16
Segun Divis
Valladolid
3-0
Ceuta
W
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