AEK Athens vs Madrid

Madrid's scoring route runs through Kylian Mbappe's movement and Arda Guler's link play. Mbappe has three goals and one assist in his last three games, with 4.0 shots and 3.33 on target per game. Guler has one goal, two assists, and 2.5 key passes per game across his last two. For AEK, Pilios Stavros has averaged 7.0 progressive carries per game and created two big chances in his last two, offering a way to launch transitions. Whether Madrid can disrupt that link quickly, rather than merely dominate possession, matters.

AEK Athens' last five bring a 2-3 record and averages of 2.0 goals for and 2.0 against, an uneasy overall profile. At home, however, they have won their last five, scoring 3.6 per game without conceding; their first and second halves each show nine goals for and none against. That home attack and resilience offer a route to disrupt Madrid. The vulnerability is the 4.0 goals conceded per game and 2.11 xGA across three season games if that resistance breaks.

Madrid's five straight recent wins broadly align with their away record: four wins and one loss in their last five away games, averaging 2.6 goals for and 1.6 against, with a current three-game away winning streak. But their away halves diverge: seven goals for and one against before the break, then six for and seven against after it. The winning run does not guarantee control through the second half. Rodrygo is out with a knee injury until January 31.