Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Guadalajara win value +3.3ppMoney flow: America
America winOdds 34.5%-16.6pp
17.9%
DrawOdds 27.4%-1.7pp
25.7%
Guadalajara winOdds 38.1%+3.3pp
41.4%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- America win28Draw214Guadalajara win29
- Road profile · Guadalajara
- Actual41.1%+4.3pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- America2.32
- Guadalajara3.00
- Draw3.40
Opening 2.45 → current 2.32 — moving toward America.
| Time | America | Guadalajara | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05:23 | 2.32 ▾ | 3.00 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 00:33 | 2.55 ▾ | 2.65 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 22:23 | 2.57 ▾ | 2.57 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 17:23 | 2.65 ▴ | 2.55 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 15:08 | 2.57 ▾ | 2.57 | 3.30 |
| 14:40 | 2.65 | 2.57 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 13:40 | 2.65 | 2.55 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 06:46 | 2.65 ▾ | 2.50 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 17:39 | 2.70 ▴ | 2.45 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 18:01 | 2.65 ▴ | 2.50 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 06:00 | 2.55 ▴ | 2.55 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 12:14 | 2.45 | 2.65 | 3.40 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- America2.03
- Guadalajara1.67
America average odds 2.03 · actual win rate 40% / Guadalajara average odds 1.67 · actual win rate 80%
Last 5 Games
America
Guadalajara
40.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
80.0%1.8
Avg Scoredaway advantage
2.60.4
Avg Marginaway advantage
2.0Home Team Analysis
Good60%
3W2D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.03
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
America
2-2
Monterrey
D
26.08.30
Liga MX (MX)
America
2-0
Puebla
W
26.08.27
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
America
2-0
Columbus
W
26.08.17
Liga MX (MX)
America
3-0
San Luis
W
26.08.14
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
America
1-1
Austin
D
Away Team Analysis
Good60%
3W2D0L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.6
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
0-3
Guadalajara
W
26.08.30
Liga MX (MX)
Pachuca
1-1
Guadalajara
D
26.08.17
Liga MX (MX)
Santos
0-1
Guadalajara
W
26.08.13
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
Seattle
1-2
Guadalajara
W
26.08.06
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
LAFC
1-1
Guadalajara
D
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.02.15
Liga MX (MX)
Guadalajara
1-0
America
W
25.09.14
Liga MX (MX)
America
1-2
Guadalajara
L
25.03.13
Champ. Cup
America
4-0
Guadalajara
W
25.03.09
Liga MX (MX)
Guadalajara
0-0
America
D
25.03.06
Champ. Cup
Guadalajara
1-0
America
W
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