Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Iraklis 1908
Thessaloniki winOdds 58.7%+2.8pp
61.5%
DrawOdds 24.6%-5.4pp
19.2%
Iraklis 1908 winOdds 16.8%-4.3pp
12.5%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Thessaloniki win13Draw26Iraklis 1908 win16
- Road profile · Iraklis 1908
- Actual33.3%+15.0pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Thessaloniki1.62
- Iraklis 19084.75
- Draw3.70
Opening 1.56 → current 1.62 — moving toward Iraklis 1908.
| Time | Thessaloniki | Iraklis 1908 | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | 1.62 | 4.75 | 3.70 |
| 22:23 | 1.62 ▴ | 4.75 ▾ | 3.80 |
| 18:39 | 1.61 ▴ | 5.00 ▾ | 3.90 |
| 16:48 | 1.57 ▾ | 5.25 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 15:38 | 1.61 | 5.00 ▾ | 3.80 |
| 15:08 | 1.61 ▴ | 5.25 ▾ | 3.70 |
| 11:00 | 1.57 | 5.50 ▴ | 3.75 |
| 22:01 | 1.57 | 5.25 | 3.75 |
| 22:00 | 1.57 ▾ | 5.25 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 19:00 | 1.62 ▴ | 4.75 ▾ | 3.60 |
| 21:11 | 1.57 ▴ | 5.00 ▾ | 3.60 |
| 03:14 | 1.56 | 5.25 | 3.70 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Thessaloniki4.13
- Iraklis 19086.37
Thessaloniki average odds 4.13 · actual win rate 60% / Iraklis 1908 average odds 6.37
Last 5 Games
Thessaloniki
Iraklis 1908
60.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
25.0%1.6
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.0-0.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.5Home Team Analysis
Hot4W80%
4W0D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.31
Super L.
Thessaloniki
2-1
OFI Crete
W
26.05.17
Super L.
Thessaloniki
3-0
Levadiakos
W
26.05.10
Super L.
Thessaloniki
3-1
OFI Crete
W
26.04.19
Super L.
Thessaloniki
3-2
Volos
W
26.03.23
Super L.
Thessaloniki
0-2
OFI Crete
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor33%
1W1D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.7
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.08
Super L.
Asteras
0-2
Iraklis 1908
W
26.08.30
Super L.
Volos
1-1
Iraklis 1908
D
26.08.23
Super L.
AEK Athens
4-0
Iraklis 1908
L
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