Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Heidenheim
Arminia winOdds 44.2%-1.9pp
42.3%
DrawOdds 25.8%+0.4pp
26.2%
Heidenheim winOdds 30.0%-1.1pp
28.9%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Arminia win71Draw344Heidenheim win76
- Road profile · Heidenheim
- Actual30.4%+0.4pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Arminia2.15
- Heidenheim3.00
- Draw3.60
Opening 1.95 → current 2.15 — moving toward Heidenheim.
| Time | Arminia | Heidenheim | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16:29 | 2.15 ▴ | 3.00 ▾ | 3.60 |
| 23:01 | 2.10 ▴ | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| 21:01 | 2.05 ▴ | 3.10 ▾ | 3.60 |
| 21:11 | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Arminia2.10
- Heidenheim1.94
Arminia average odds 2.10 · actual win rate 20% / Heidenheim average odds 1.94 · actual win rate 60%
Last 5 Games
Arminia
Heidenheim
20.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
60.0%1.8
Avg Scoredaway advantage
2.0-0.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.4Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.6
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
2 Bund
Arminia
2-2
St. Pauli
D
26.08.16
2 Bund
Arminia
3-0
Cottbus
W
26.05.17
2 Bund
Arminia
6-1
Hertha
W
26.05.02
2 Bund
Arminia
1-1
Bochum
D
26.04.18
2 Bund
Arminia
1-1
Nurnberg
D
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
2 Bund
Furth
0-1
Heidenheim
W
26.08.23
FA Cup (DE)
Jeddeloh
5-2
Heidenheim
L
26.08.15
2 Bund
Hertha
4-1
Heidenheim
L
26.05.11
Bund
Köln
1-3
Heidenheim
W
26.05.02
Bund
Bayern
3-3
Heidenheim
D
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