Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Avellino
Ascoli winOdds 45.3%+0.3pp
45.6%
DrawOdds 28.1%+1.9pp
30.0%
Avellino winOdds 26.5%-0.8pp
25.7%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Ascoli win103Draw237Avellino win101
- Road profile · Avellino
- Actual21.7%-1.5pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Ascoli2.05
- Avellino3.50
- Draw3.30
Opening 1.86 → current 2.05 — moving toward Avellino.
| Time | Ascoli | Avellino | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22:01 | 2.05 | 3.50 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 18:11 | 2.05 ▴ | 3.30 ▾ | 3.25 |
| 02:44 | 1.86 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Ascoli3.80
- Avellino3.59
Ascoli average odds 3.80 · actual win rate 40% / Avellino average odds 3.59 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Ascoli
Avellino
40.0%
Win Rateeven
40.0%1.0
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.2-0.4
Avg Marginaway advantage
0.0Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W2D1L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Serie B (IT)
Ascoli
1-0
Benevento
W
26.08.30
Serie B (IT)
Ascoli
1-1
Carrarese
D
24.05.11
Serie B (IT)
Ascoli
2-1
Pisa
W
24.05.01
Serie B (IT)
Ascoli
0-1
Cosenza
L
24.04.20
Serie B (IT)
Ascoli
0-0
Modena
D
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W0D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Serie B (IT)
Modena
0-1
Avellino
W
26.08.15
FA Cup (IT)
Monza
3-0
Avellino
L
26.05.13
Serie B (IT)
Catanzaro
3-0
Avellino
L
26.05.01
Serie B (IT)
Empoli
1-0
Avellino
L
26.04.18
Serie B (IT)
Mantova
0-2
Avellino
W
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