Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +5.0pp
Atletico Mineiro winOdds 66.9%-5.8pp
61.1%
DrawOdds 21.5%+5.0pp
26.5%
Chapecoense winOdds 11.6%0.0pp
11.6%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Atletico Mineiro win54Draw34Chapecoense win43
- Road profile · Chapecoense
- Actual6.7%-7.2pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Atletico Mineiro1.39
- Chapecoense8.00
- Draw4.50
Opening 1.37 → current 1.39 — moving toward Chapecoense.
| Time | Atletico Mineiro | Chapecoense | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:04 | 1.39 ▴ | 8.00 ▾ | 4.50 |
| 03:34 | 1.35 ▴ | 8.50 ▾ | 4.50 |
| 14:10 | 1.33 ▾ | 9.00 ▴ | 4.75 |
| 13:40 | 1.37 | 8.50 ▴ | 4.50 |
| 10:33 | 1.37 ▾ | 8.00 | 4.50 |
| 22:01 | 1.39 ▾ | 8.00 ▴ | 4.33 |
| 16:31 | 1.41 ▴ | 7.50 ▾ | 4.50 |
| 12:00 | 1.33 ▾ | 9.00 ▴ | 4.75 |
| 05:00 | 1.39 ▴ | 7.00 ▾ | 4.33 |
| 04:14 | 1.37 | 7.50 | 4.33 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Atletico Mineiro2.95
- Chapecoense4.94
Atletico Mineiro average odds 2.95 · actual win rate 60% / Chapecoense average odds 4.94 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Atletico Mineiro
Chapecoense
60.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
40.0%1.6
Avg Scoredeven
1.60.8
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.2Home Team Analysis
Hot3W80%
4W1D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.4
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.13
Camp (BR)
Atletico Min…
3-1
Fluminense
W
26.08.30
Camp (BR)
Atletico Min…
2-1
Vitoria
W
26.08.17
Camp (BR)
Atletico Min…
3-0
Gremio
W
26.07.22
Camp (BR)
Atletico Min…
1-1
Bahia
D
26.05.17
Camp (BR)
Atletico Min…
3-1
Mirassol
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.07
Camp (BR)
Corinthians
1-2
Chapecoense
W
26.08.31
Camp (BR)
Gremio
3-1
Chapecoense
L
26.08.09
Camp (BR)
Coritiba
2-1
Chapecoense
L
26.07.26
Camp (BR)
Santos
2-2
Chapecoense
D
26.05.25
Camp (BR)
Cruzeiro
2-1
Chapecoense
L
H2H Analysis
Hot100%
1W0D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
4.0
Avg ConcededStable
0.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.03
Camp (BR)
Chapecoense
0-4
Atletico Min…
L
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