Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Necaxa
San Luis winOdds 40.9%-2.7pp
38.2%
DrawOdds 27.7%-2.0pp
25.7%
Necaxa winOdds 31.4%-6.4pp
25.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- San Luis win34Draw214Necaxa win40
- Road profile · Necaxa
- Actual20.0%-4.4pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- San Luis2.20
- Necaxa3.10
- Draw3.50
Opening 2.01 → current 2.20 — moving toward Necaxa.
| Time | San Luis | Necaxa | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:34 | 2.20 | 3.10 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 03:24 | 2.20 ▴ | 3.20 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 03:04 | 2.15 ▴ | 3.25 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 02:54 | 2.10 ▾ | 3.30 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 19:55 | 2.15 ▾ | 3.25 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 15:58 | 2.20 ▾ | 3.10 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 15:08 | 2.25 | 3.00 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 13:40 | 2.25 ▾ | 3.10 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 06:56 | 2.30 | 3.00 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 06:46 | 2.30 | 3.10 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 01:35 | 2.30 ▴ | 3.00 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 01:05 | 2.25 ▾ | 3.10 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 20:35 | 2.30 ▴ | 3.00 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 22:01 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| 18:01 | 2.25 ▴ | 3.10 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 12:30 | 2.15 | 3.20 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 05:00 | 2.15 ▴ | 3.00 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 23:20 | 2.10 ▴ | 3.10 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 08:30 | 2.01 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- San Luis3.88
- Necaxa3.61
San Luis average odds 3.88 · actual win rate 20% / Necaxa average odds 3.61 · actual win rate 0%
Last 5 Games
San Luis
Necaxa
20.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
0.0%1.2
Avg Scoredhome advantage
0.8-0.8
Avg Margineven
-0.8Home Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W2D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
0-3
Guadalajara
L
26.08.24
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
1-1
Pachuca
D
26.08.01
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
0-0
Tijuana
D
26.07.18
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
2-3
Cruz Azul
L
26.04.23
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
2-0
Santos
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor2D20%
1W2D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Liga MX (MX)
Tigres UANL
1-1
Necaxa
D
26.08.24
Liga MX (MX)
Pumas
1-1
Necaxa
D
26.08.14
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
NYCFC
1-2
Necaxa
W
26.08.10
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
Philly
3-1
Necaxa
L
26.08.07
L. Cup (CONCACAF)
Chicago
2-0
Necaxa
L
H2H Analysis
Poor0%
0W1D4L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededUnstable
3.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.02.07
Liga MX (MX)
Necaxa
4-1
San Luis
W
25.10.27
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
3-4
Necaxa
L
25.01.25
Liga MX (MX)
San Luis
0-3
Necaxa
L
24.11.07
Liga MX (MX)
Necaxa
1-1
San Luis
D
24.03.09
Liga MX (MX)
Necaxa
3-1
San Luis
W
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