Birmingham vs Millwall

Birmingham’s scoring route pairs Priske August’s finishing with Iwata Tomoki’s chance creation. Priske August has six goals in 11 season appearances and two in his last two; Iwata Tomoki has averaged 1.33 key passes and created three big chances over his last three. For Millwall, Lisbie Kyrell Jeremiah has scored three in his last three, but also missed three big chances in that span, making conversion decisive.

Birmingham’s clearest constraint is its 1.33 xGA over the last five: the 0.4 goals conceded per game does not mean chances have been fully shut down. Its 2.2 goals and 5.6 shots on target per game, plus three clean sheets in that span, offer a way through. Priske August has six goals in 11 season appearances and two in his last two; Iwata Tomoki created three big chances over his last three.

Millwall’s 1.6 goals per game and 1.75 xG over its last five suggest more attacking potential than its away record alone. The sharper constraint is 2.4 conceded per game over its last five away, including eight second-half goals conceded. Cooper Jake offers a defensive route with 6.0 clearances per game and a 64.7% duel-win rate over his last three; Taylor Caleb has a 72.2% duel-win rate and 7.33 clearances per game in that window.

The last three meetings are 1-2 from Birmingham’s perspective, with four goals for and four against overall: neither side established an edge, and there were two scoreless outings and one clean sheet. That pattern could support a tighter game, but Birmingham is scoring 2.2 per game over its last five while Millwall has conceded 2.4 per game across its last five away. Current form gives the home attack a chance to break the old balance.