Dortmund vs Betis

Guirassy is Dortmund’s finishing fulcrum: four goals in three season games, with 5.0 shots per game and 1.39 xG across his last three. But he also missed four big chances in that span, a real caveat to the narrow-win call. Isco supplies Betis’ creative threat, recording two goals, one assist, 3.0 key passes per game and three big chances created in his last three. The matchup turns on whether Guirassy converts and whether Isco can keep creating for Betis.

Dortmund are unbeaten in their last five (3W-2D), scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.0 per game, while their last five home games brought four wins and 2.4 goals per game. The records share an unbeaten pattern, but home scoring is markedly higher. At home, they scored three and conceded none in first halves, then scored nine and conceded six in second halves. They can press an early advantage, but the more open second-half profile is a vulnerability.

Betis’ profile is 3W-1D-1L in their last five, with 1.6 goals for and against per game. Their average margin is 0.0, and their last five away games—2W-2D-1L, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 per game—also suggest a closely balanced side. Their 1.78 xG and 20.0 shots per game across their last three offer a route to trouble Dortmund. But they scored only two and conceded four in second halves of their last five away games, a concern against Dortmund’s home second-half scoring.