Cardiff vs West Ham

Cardiff need Moylan Jack, who has six goals and three assists this season, to connect attacks and finish them; he has one goal and one assist with 1.33 key passes per game across his last three. Salech Yousef has averaged five shots per game in his last two, though he has also missed two big chances. For West Ham, Kante Mohamadou’s two assists and two key passes per game in his last three offer a late attacking outlet.

Cardiff’s last five—two wins, a draw and two defeats, with 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded per game—are uneven. Their home record is distinctly stronger: three wins and two draws, including three straight victories. At home they have averaged 2.4 goals for and 1.0 against; nine first-half goals and one second-half concession point to a side that can get ahead early and protect a lead. Their season xG of 1.80 suggests chance creation, but xGA of 1.47 and five defeats in 13 league games show that advantage has not reliably become points. If they fail to press early, West Ham’s late attack can take over.

West Ham’s season profile is six wins, four draws and three defeats in 13 games, with 2.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; their xG is 2.06 and xGA 1.16. The route to carrying that profile into this match is their last five away games: three wins, two draws, 2.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. They have scored eight times after halftime and conceded none in that span. The caveat is their latest overall form: two wins, a draw and two defeats in five, including two straight losses. Against West Brom they lost 1-3 despite an xG of 0.91 to 2.06. Whether the away strength holds depends on surviving the first-half risk.