Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Rangers
Celtic winOdds 43.5%-0.6pp
42.9%
DrawOdds 25.3%+0.6pp
25.9%
Rangers winOdds 31.2%-0.9pp
30.3%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Celtic win28Draw27Rangers win33
- Road profile · Rangers
- Actual49.4%-3.0pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Celtic2.10
- Rangers3.10
- Draw3.70
Opening 1.96 → current 2.10 — moving toward Rangers.
| Time | Celtic | Rangers | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:40 | 2.10 ▾ | 3.10 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 20:28 | 2.15 | 3.00 ▾ | 3.70 |
| 16:29 | 2.15 | 3.10 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 05:31 | 2.15 ▴ | 3.00 ▾ | 3.70 |
| 12:00 | 1.96 | 3.40 ▴ | 3.75 |
| 21:11 | 1.96 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Celtic1.81
- Rangers1.69
Celtic average odds 1.81 · actual win rate 60% / Rangers average odds 1.69 · actual win rate 80%
Last 5 Games
Celtic
Rangers
60.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
80.0%1.8
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.00.0
Avg Marginaway advantage
0.6Home Team Analysis
Hot80%
4W0D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.18
UEL L.
Celtic
1-3
Ferencváros
L
26.09.03
SPL L.
Celtic
3-0
Aberdeen
W
26.08.29
SPL L.
Celtic
2-1
Falkirk
W
26.08.20
UCL L.
Celtic
3-0
LASK
W
26.08.04
SPL L.
Celtic
1-0
Dundee
W
Away Team Analysis
Average2W40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.03
SPL L.
Falkirk
1-2
Rangers
W
26.08.30
SPL L.
Aberdeen
0-1
Rangers
W
26.08.28
UECL L.
Jablonec
1-0
Rangers
L
26.08.07
UEL L.
Jagiellonia
2-1
Rangers
L
26.08.01
SPL L.
Dundee Utd
1-1
Rangers
D
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.05.10
SPL L.
Celtic
3-1
Rangers
W
26.03.01
SPL L.
Rangers
2-2
Celtic
D
26.01.03
SPL L.
Celtic
1-3
Rangers
L
25.08.31
SPL L.
Rangers
0-0
Celtic
D
25.05.04
SPL L.
Rangers
1-1
Celtic
D
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