Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Ac. Viseu win value +7.1pp
Estrela winOdds 44.4%-7.1pp
37.3%
DrawOdds 28.2%+3.3pp
31.5%
Ac. Viseu winOdds 27.4%+7.1pp
34.5%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Estrela win51Draw146Ac. Viseu win58
- Road profile · Ac. Viseu
- Actual29.4%-5.0pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Estrela2.10
- Ac. Viseu3.40
- Draw3.30
Opening 2.01 → current 2.10 — moving toward Ac. Viseu.
| Time | Estrela | Ac. Viseu | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | 2.10 | 3.40 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 04:30 | 2.10 ▴ | 3.30 ▾ | 3.25 |
| 12:00 | 2.05 ▴ | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| 00:20 | 2.01 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Estrela3.58
- Ac. Viseu4.67
Estrela average odds 3.58 · actual win rate 40% / Ac. Viseu average odds 4.67 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Estrela
Ac. Viseu
40.0%
Win Rateeven
40.0%2.4
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.00.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.4Home Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.11
Prime Liga
Estrela
2-1
Braga
W
26.09.05
Prime Liga
Estrela
2-2
Famalicao
D
26.08.09
Prime Liga
Estrela
2-2
Sporting CP
D
26.05.12
Prime Liga
Estrela
0-0
Famalicao
D
26.04.27
Prime Liga
Estrela
1-2
Porto
L
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W3D0L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.07
Prime Liga
Gil Vicente
0-1
Ac. Viseu
W
26.08.22
Prime Liga
Marítimo
2-2
Ac. Viseu
D
26.08.10
Prime Liga
Benfica
2-2
Ac. Viseu
D
26.05.10
Liga Portu
Benfica B
0-2
Ac. Viseu
W
26.04.25
Liga Portu
Farense
0-0
Ac. Viseu
D
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