Charlton are unbeaten in the last three head-to-heads (two wins, one draw), scoring 7 and conceding 4, while Bolton’s win price has drifted from 2.82 to 3.10.
Charlton vs Bolton Wanderers
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
- Games at matching odds
- Charlton142 gamesDraw500 gamesBolton Wanderers124 games
Odds Flow
- Charlton2.15
- Bolton Wanderers3.25
- Draw3.30
| Time | Charlton | Bolton Wanderers | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.04 04:26 | 2.15 ▴ | 3.25 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 11.04 04:06 | 2.10 ▴ | 3.30 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 11.04 03:46 | 2.05 ▾ | 3.50 ▴ | 3.30 |
Odds · Last 5 games
- CharltonAvg 5.58· Win 0%
- Bolton WanderersAvg 5.24· Win 20%
Team condition
Charlton need Kelman Charlie to finish: over his last three games he has averaged 3.0 shots and 5.33 box touches, but missed two big chances and recorded 0.34 xG. He must convert against Bolton’s recent high xGA. For Bolton, Sheehan Josh links play with 46.0/53.67 passes and 0.67 key passes per game across his last three, while Larrazabal Gaizka offers width and supply, with three season assists and 3.0 key passes per game in his last three. If that service finds Bair Theo, Charlton’s defence will face a sterner test.
Charlton’s last-five rates—0.8 goals for and 2.2 against per game—are rougher at both ends than their season averages of 0.92 for and 1.75 against. Their last five at home, however, brought one win, three draws and one defeat, with just 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. That home sample and the season record suggest they are harder to break at home, but their 1.29 xG in the last five has not translated into goals: shots on target are only 30.0%. Finishing is the weakness, and Bolton’s shot volume could increase the defensive strain.
Bolton’s 1.4 goals per game over their last five is close to their season rate of 1.5, while 2.2 conceded is similarly poor to their season 2.17. Both their 4-2-7 season record and recent 1-1-3 spell look shaky, and the recent 2.50 xGA stands out against 1.58 xG. Yet 17.0 shots per game in that span, up from 13.6 for the season, means their attack should not be dismissed as blunt. They have two wins and a draw in their last five away games, but still conceded 2.2 per game; handling Charlton’s counters is key.
Across the last three meetings, Charlton are 2-1-0, with 7 goals for and 4 against, and have won the last two. That pattern, alongside home advantage, offers a route against Bolton’s high xGA. But history alone does not establish a repeat: Charlton have lost three straight and averaged 0.8 goals across their last five, while Bolton have produced 17.0 shots per game in that span. Charlton need better finishing than their recent rate to reproduce their past scoring edge.