Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +3.8ppMoney flow: Once Caldas
Pasto winOdds 29.5%-0.1pp
29.4%
DrawOdds 29.5%+3.8pp
33.3%
Once Caldas winOdds 41.0%-1.9pp
39.1%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Pasto win17Draw126Once Caldas win23
- Road profile · Once Caldas
- Actual22.9%-4.0pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Pasto3.50
- Once Caldas2.25
- Draw3.00
Opening 2.80 → current 3.50 — moving toward Once Caldas.
| Time | Pasto | Once Caldas | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | 3.50 | 2.25 ▴ | 3.00 |
| 09:52 | 3.50 ▾ | 2.20 ▴ | 3.10 |
| 09:41 | 3.60 ▾ | 2.15 ▴ | 3.10 |
| 09:30 | 3.70 ▾ | 2.10 ▴ | 3.20 |
| 08:27 | 4.00 ▴ | 2.00 ▾ | 3.20 |
| 08:14 | 3.70 ▴ | 2.10 ▾ | 3.20 |
| 22:46 | 3.25 ▴ | 2.30 | 3.10 |
| 01:01 | 3.20 ▴ | 2.30 ▾ | 3.20 |
| 11:30 | 2.80 | 2.60 ▴ | 3.10 |
| 04:14 | 2.80 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Pasto4.55
- Once Caldas2.47
Pasto average odds 4.55 · actual win rate 20% / Once Caldas average odds 2.47 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Pasto
Once Caldas
20.0%
Win Rateeven
20.0%1.0
Avg Scoredeven
1.0-0.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.4Home Team Analysis
5L Streak5L0%
0W0D5L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.4
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.01
Prim.
Pasto
1-2
Pereira
L
26.08.24
Prim.
Pasto
0-1
Llaneros
L
26.08.09
Prim.
Pasto
0-2
Cali
L
26.08.02
Prim.
Pasto
1-2
Aguilas
L
26.05.14
Prim.
Pasto
0-2
Tolima
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Prim.
Chico
2-0
Once Caldas
L
26.09.02
Prim.
Fortaleza CE…
1-2
Once Caldas
W
26.08.24
Prim.
Junior
1-1
Once Caldas
D
26.08.10
Prim.
Jaguares Cór…
1-1
Once Caldas
D
26.08.03
Prim.
Santa Fe
2-2
Once Caldas
D
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.03.14
Prim.
Once Caldas
4-2
Pasto
W
25.11.10
Prim.
Once Caldas
1-0
Pasto
W
25.05.19
Prim.
Pasto
2-1
Once Caldas
W
24.10.15
Prim.
Once Caldas
2-1
Pasto
W
24.03.31
Prim.
Pasto
0-0
Once Caldas
D
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