Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Djurgarden win value +13.6pp
Djurgarden winOdds 60.2%+13.6pp
73.8%
DrawOdds 23.0%+4.3pp
27.3%
Elfsborg winOdds 16.8%+0.6pp
17.4%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Djurgarden win42Draw77Elfsborg win23
- Road profile · Elfsborg
- Actual40.0%+3.1pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Djurgarden1.49
- Elfsborg6.00
- Draw4.10
Opening 1.46 → current 1.49 — moving toward Elfsborg.
| Time | Djurgarden | Elfsborg | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:14 | 1.49 ▾ | 6.00 ▴ | 4.10 |
| 06:57 | 1.51 ▾ | 5.75 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 12:30 | 1.53 | 5.50 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 23:20 | 1.53 ▴ | 4.75 ▾ | 4.10 |
| 21:11 | 1.46 | 5.50 | 4.25 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Djurgarden1.69
- Elfsborg1.88
Djurgarden average odds 1.69 · actual win rate 100% / Elfsborg average odds 1.88 · actual win rate 60%
Last 5 Games
Djurgarden
Elfsborg
100.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
60.0%2.4
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.62.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
1.0Home Team Analysis
Hot2W80%
4W0D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
3.2
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.15
Alls
Djurgarden
2-0
GAIS
W
26.09.01
Alls
Djurgarden
4-0
Mjallby
W
26.08.16
Alls
Djurgarden
1-3
AIK
L
26.08.04
Alls
Djurgarden
6-0
Vasteras
W
26.07.14
Alls
Djurgarden
3-0
Halmstad
W
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Alls
Brommapojkar…
2-1
Elfsborg
L
26.08.23
Alls
Goteborg
1-1
Elfsborg
D
26.08.09
Alls
Mjallby
0-1
Elfsborg
W
26.07.26
Alls
Malmo
1-2
Elfsborg
W
26.07.12
Alls
GAIS
1-0
Elfsborg
L
H2H Analysis
Good60%
3W0D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.23
Alls
Elfsborg
2-1
Djurgarden
W
25.07.19
Alls
Djurgarden
1-0
Elfsborg
W
25.05.20
Alls
Elfsborg
4-0
Djurgarden
W
24.07.28
Alls
Elfsborg
1-2
Djurgarden
L
24.05.12
Alls
Djurgarden
2-0
Elfsborg
W
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