Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Alverca win value +10.8ppMoney flow: Alverca
Alverca winOdds 48.8%+10.8pp
59.6%
DrawOdds 26.6%+9.9pp
36.5%
Rio Ave winOdds 24.5%+1.8pp
26.3%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Alverca win47Draw96Rio Ave win38
- Road profile · Rio Ave
- Actual21.1%-5.4pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Alverca1.71
- Rio Ave4.50
- Draw3.70
Opening 1.81 → current 1.71 — moving toward Alverca.
| Time | Alverca | Rio Ave | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:59 | 1.71 ▾ | 4.50 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 01:38 | 1.76 | 4.33 ▴ | 3.60 |
| 21:57 | 1.76 ▾ | 4.20 ▴ | 3.60 |
| 20:28 | 1.81 ▾ | 4.00 ▴ | 3.60 |
| 06:46 | 1.91 ▾ | 3.80 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 22:46 | 2.01 ▴ | 3.50 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 22:01 | 1.86 ▴ | 4.00 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 12:30 | 1.81 | 4.20 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 02:30 | 1.81 | 4.10 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 02:14 | 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Alverca4.59
- Rio Ave5.46
Alverca average odds 4.59 · actual win rate 20% / Rio Ave average odds 5.46 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Alverca
Rio Ave
20.0%
Win Rateeven
20.0%1.6
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.0-0.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-1.6Home Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Prime Liga
Alverca
1-2
Braga
L
26.08.29
Prime Liga
Alverca
1-1
Santa Clara
D
26.08.15
Prime Liga
Alverca
2-2
Estrela
D
26.05.11
Prime Liga
Alverca
1-1
Estoril
D
26.04.25
Prime Liga
Alverca
2-1
Arouca
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Prime Liga
Santa Clara
4-0
Rio Ave
L
26.08.23
Prime Liga
Estoril
0-2
Rio Ave
W
26.08.10
Prime Liga
Gil Vicente
1-0
Rio Ave
L
26.05.17
Prime Liga
Casa Pia
1-1
Rio Ave
D
26.04.26
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
2-0
Rio Ave
L
H2H Analysis
Average50%
1W1D0L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.5
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.05
Prime Liga
Rio Ave
1-2
Alverca
L
25.11.09
Prime Liga
Alverca
1-1
Rio Ave
D
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