Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Cherno More
Arda winOdds 55.1%-5.1pp
50.0%
DrawOdds 26.4%-3.2pp
23.2%
Cherno More winOdds 18.5%+2.2pp
20.7%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Arda win32Draw56Cherno More win29
- Road profile · Cherno More
- Actual34.5%-1.7pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Arda1.86
- Cherno More4.20
- Draw3.30
Opening 1.66 → current 1.86 — moving toward Cherno More.
| Time | Arda | Cherno More | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:08 | 1.86 ▴ | 4.20 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 00:58 | 1.81 ▾ | 4.33 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 00:33 | 1.86 ▾ | 4.20 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 00:08 | 1.91 ▾ | 4.00 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 22:38 | 2.01 ▴ | 3.80 ▾ | 3.20 |
| 22:27 | 1.91 ▴ | 4.00 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 22:07 | 1.86 ▴ | 4.20 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 17:55 | 1.76 | 4.75 | 3.40 |
| 16:39 | 1.76 ▴ | 4.75 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 14:40 | 1.68 ▴ | 5.00 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 23:16 | 1.66 ▾ | 5.25 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 10:30 | 1.68 | 5.00 | 3.50 |
| 01:31 | 1.68 ▾ | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| 11:00 | 1.71 ▴ | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| 01:14 | 1.66 | 5.00 | 3.40 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Arda2.71
- Cherno More3.59
Arda average odds 2.71 · actual win rate 60% / Cherno More average odds 3.59 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Arda
Cherno More
60.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
20.0%1.8
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.40.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.8Home Team Analysis
Hot80%
4W0D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.4
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
Bulg First L.
Arda
2-3
Botev Plovdi…
L
26.09.01
Bulg First L.
Arda
2-0
Botev Vratsa
W
26.08.18
Bulg First L.
Arda
3-1
Lokomotiv So…
W
26.07.25
Bulg First L.
Arda
1-0
Slavia Sofia
W
26.05.17
Bulg First L.
Arda
4-0
Lokomotiv Pl…
W
Away Team Analysis
4L Streak4L0%
0W1D4L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.07
Bulg First L.
Lokomotiv Pl…
1-0
Cherno More
L
26.08.31
Bulg First L.
CSKA Sofia
3-1
Cherno More
L
26.08.15
Bulg First L.
CSKA 1948
4-1
Cherno More
L
26.08.02
Bulg First L.
Botev Plovdi…
1-0
Cherno More
L
26.07.20
Bulg First L.
Botev Vratsa
1-1
Cherno More
D
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.05.25
Bulg First L.
Cherno More
2-3
Arda
L
26.05.03
Bulg First L.
Arda
0-0
Cherno More
D
26.03.04
Bulg First L.
Cherno More
0-0
Arda
D
25.09.23
Bulg First L.
Arda
0-1
Cherno More
L
25.05.19
Bulg First L.
Arda
0-0
Cherno More
D
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