Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
St. Pauli win value +5.9ppMoney flow: Cottbus
Cottbus winOdds 30.9%+2.4pp
33.3%
DrawOdds 25.0%-0.6pp
24.4%
St. Pauli winOdds 44.1%+5.9pp
50.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Cottbus win51Draw78St. Pauli win34
- Road profile · St. Pauli
- Actual31.7%-1.2pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Cottbus3.00
- St. Pauli2.10
- Draw3.70
Opening 3.10 → current 3.00 — moving toward Cottbus.
| Time | Cottbus | St. Pauli | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:01 | 3.00 ▾ | 2.10 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 05:30 | 3.25 ▴ | 2.00 ▾ | 3.75 |
| 04:30 | 2.90 ▾ | 2.15 ▴ | 3.70 |
| 07:30 | 3.25 ▴ | 2.00 ▾ | 3.75 |
| 23:20 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 3.80 |
| 21:11 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 3.70 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Cottbus4.65
- St. Pauli2.36
Cottbus average odds 4.65 · actual win rate 20% / St. Pauli average odds 2.36 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Cottbus
St. Pauli
20.0%
Win Rateeven
20.0%2.0
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.2-0.6
Avg Marginaway advantage
-0.4Home Team Analysis
Good2L60%
3W0D2L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.6
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.29
2 Bund
Cottbus
3-4
Furth
L
26.08.22
FA Cup (DE)
Cottbus
0-2
Augsburg
L
26.08.09
2 Bund
Cottbus
3-1
Hannover 96
W
26.05.09
3 Liga
Cottbus
2-1
Wehen
W
26.04.19
3 Liga
Cottbus
5-3
RW Essen
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor0%
0W2D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
2 Bund
Arminia
2-2
St. Pauli
D
26.08.24
FA Cup (DE)
RW Essen
2-0
St. Pauli
L
26.08.15
2 Bund
Kiel
2-2
St. Pauli
D
26.05.09
Bund
Leipzig
2-1
St. Pauli
L
26.04.25
Bund
Heidenheim
2-0
St. Pauli
L
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