Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Saint-Etienne
Metz winOdds 26.2%-1.2pp
25.0%
DrawOdds 27.0%-2.0pp
25.0%
Saint-Etienne winOdds 46.8%-4.7pp
42.1%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Metz win36Draw200Saint-Etienne win19
- Road profile · Saint-Etienne
- Actual30.0%-1.4pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Metz3.60
- Saint-Etienne1.83
- Draw3.30
Opening 2.90 → current 3.60 — moving toward Saint-Etienne.
| Time | Metz | Saint-Etienne | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02:30 | 3.60 | 1.83 | 3.30 |
| 01:38 | 3.60 ▴ | 1.83 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 01:30 | 3.50 ▾ | 1.85 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 00:33 | 3.60 ▴ | 1.83 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 14:40 | 3.50 ▴ | 1.85 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 23:20 | 3.40 ▴ | 1.90 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 04:44 | 3.00 ▴ | 2.10 ▾ | 3.10 |
| 03:14 | 2.90 | 2.20 | 3.10 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Metz2.21
- Saint-Etienne1.48
Metz average odds 2.21 · actual win rate 20% / Saint-Etienne average odds 1.48 · actual win rate 80%
Last 5 Games
Metz
Saint-Etienne
20.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
80.0%1.2
Avg Scoredaway advantage
2.80.4
Avg Marginaway advantage
1.6Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
Ligue 2 (FR)
Metz
4-1
Rodez
W
26.08.22
Ligue 2 (FR)
Metz
1-1
Laval
D
26.08.09
Ligue 2 (FR)
Metz
2-1
Guingamp
W
26.05.11
Ligue 1 (FR)
Metz
0-4
Lorient
L
26.05.03
Ligue 1 (FR)
Metz
1-2
Monaco
L
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W0D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.8
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.13
Ligue 2 (FR)
Dunkerque
2-1
Saint-Etienn…
L
26.09.01
Ligue 2 (FR)
Dijon
2-3
Saint-Etienn…
W
26.08.09
Ligue 2 (FR)
Sochaux
0-3
Saint-Etienn…
W
26.05.30
Ligue 1 (FR)
Nice
4-1
Saint-Etienn…
L
26.05.03
Ligue 2 (FR)
Rodez
2-1
Saint-Etienn…
L
H2H Analysis
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
24.05.31
Ligue 1 (FR)
Saint-Etienn…
2-1
Metz
W
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