Flamengo’s 3W-2D record and 2.0 goals for against 0.6 against per game across their last five support a home win.
Flamengo vs Gremio
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
- Games at matching odds
- Flamengo1 gamesGremio6 games
Odds Flow
- Flamengo1.11
- Gremio17.00
- Draw8.50
| Time | Flamengo | Gremio | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.05 02:57 | 1.11 | 17.00 | 8.50 |
| 11.04 19:37 | 1.11 ▾ | 17.00 ▴ | 8.00 |
| 11.04 13:17 | 1.13 ▾ | 15.00 | 7.50 |
Odds · Last 5 games
- FlamengoAvg 1.67· Win 60%
- GremioAvg 2.99· Win 40%
Team condition
Flamengo’s last-five profile is 3W-2D, with 2.0 goals for and 0.6 against per game and three clean sheets. That defensive steadiness and unbeaten run offer a route against Gremio’s away weakness. But across Flamengo’s last five home games, they have scored 1.4 and conceded 0.8 per game despite going 3W-2D. The profile supports a home edge, not an automatic blowout.
Gremio’s overall last-five record—2W-2D-1L, with 1.4 goals for and 1.2 against per game—looks competitive, and they have won their last two. But their last five away games show 1W-1D-3L, 0.8 goals for and 1.2 against per game; they have scored twice and conceded five after the break. The recent run does not erase the away split. Staying close is a more credible challenge than carrying that momentum into a win.
Flamengo lead the last five meetings 3W-1D-1L, with eight goals for and five against. Their 1.6 goals for and 1.0 against per game, plus two clean sheets, leave room for that edge to recur. But Flamengo are unbeaten in their last five overall and Gremio arrive on a two-game winning streak. The head-to-head record reinforces the home-win case; it does not guarantee a big margin this time.