Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Palmeiras
Gremio winOdds 22.3%-6.5pp
15.8%
DrawOdds 26.0%+0.8pp
26.8%
Palmeiras winOdds 51.7%+2.8pp
54.5%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Gremio win19Draw149Palmeiras win22
- Road profile · Palmeiras
- Actual45.5%+4.4pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Gremio4.00
- Palmeiras1.86
- Draw3.60
Opening 3.70 → current 4.00 — moving toward Palmeiras.
| Time | Gremio | Palmeiras | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:18 | 4.00 ▾ | 1.86 ▴ | 3.60 |
| 16:35 | 4.20 ▾ | 1.81 | 3.60 |
| 02:01 | 4.50 ▴ | 1.81 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 22:01 | 4.33 ▴ | 1.86 | 3.50 |
| 20:31 | 4.20 ▴ | 1.86 ▾ | 3.60 |
| 12:00 | 4.00 ▴ | 1.91 | 3.50 |
| 08:00 | 3.80 ▴ | 1.91 | 3.40 |
| 23:20 | 3.70 | 1.91 | 3.40 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Gremio3.88
- Palmeiras1.97
Gremio average odds 3.88 · actual win rate 20% / Palmeiras average odds 1.97 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Gremio
Palmeiras
20.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
40.0%1.2
Avg Scoredeven
1.2-0.4
Avg Marginaway advantage
0.4Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.13
Camp (BR)
Gremio
1-2
Vasco
L
26.08.31
Camp (BR)
Gremio
3-1
Chapecoense
W
26.08.09
Camp (BR)
Gremio
2-1
Sao Paulo
W
26.07.27
Camp (BR)
Gremio
1-1
Fluminense
D
26.05.31
Camp (BR)
Gremio
1-3
Corinthians
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W2D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.17
Copa Libe
LDU Quito
3-2
Palmeiras
L
26.09.07
Camp (BR)
Botafogo
0-0
Palmeiras
D
26.08.31
Camp (BR)
Mirassol
1-1
Palmeiras
D
26.08.20
Copa Libe
Cerro Porteñ…
0-1
Palmeiras
W
26.08.16
Camp (BR)
Fluminense
3-2
Palmeiras
L
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.03
Camp (BR)
Palmeiras
2-1
Gremio
W
25.11.26
Camp (BR)
Gremio
3-2
Palmeiras
W
25.07.27
Camp (BR)
Palmeiras
1-0
Gremio
W
24.11.09
Camp (BR)
Palmeiras
1-0
Gremio
W
24.07.05
Camp (BR)
Gremio
2-2
Palmeiras
D
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