Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Instituto win value +9.3ppMoney flow: Instituto
Instituto winOdds 50.2%+9.3pp
59.5%
DrawOdds 30.1%-0.9pp
29.2%
Talleres winOdds 19.7%-0.9pp
18.8%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Instituto win42Draw178Talleres win48
- Road profile · Talleres
- Actual36.7%+4.8pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Instituto1.91
- Talleres4.50
- Draw3.10
Opening 2.05 → current 1.91 — moving toward Instituto.
| Time | Instituto | Talleres | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:04 | 1.91 | 4.50 ▾ | 3.10 |
| 01:59 | 1.91 ▴ | 4.75 | 3.10 |
| 22:30 | 1.86 ▴ | 4.75 ▾ | 3.10 |
| 11:00 | 1.81 | 5.00 ▴ | 3.20 |
| 23:20 | 1.81 ▾ | 4.75 ▴ | 3.10 |
| 09:30 | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Instituto2.12
- Talleres2.60
Instituto average odds 2.12 · actual win rate 60% / Talleres average odds 2.60 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Instituto
Talleres
60.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
20.0%1.2
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.00.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.4Home Team Analysis
Hot4W80%
4W0D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.15
Arge Prim. División
Instituto
2-1
Cuarto
W
26.09.01
Arge Prim. División
Instituto
1-0
San Lorenzo
W
26.08.09
Arge Prim. División
Instituto
1-0
Rivadavia
W
26.07.30
Arge Prim. División
Instituto
2-1
Platense
W
26.04.19
Arge Prim. División
Instituto
0-1
Estudiantes
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor2L20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Arge Prim. División
San Lorenzo
1-0
Talleres
L
26.08.18
Arge Prim. División
Rivadavia
3-1
Talleres
L
26.08.04
Arge Prim. División
Platense
0-4
Talleres
W
26.07.26
Arge Prim. División
Newell's
1-0
Talleres
L
26.05.03
Arge Prim. División
Union
1-1
Talleres
D
H2H Analysis
Poor25%
1W2D1L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.03.13
Arge Prim. División
Talleres
2-0
Instituto
W
25.11.17
Arge Prim. División
Instituto
0-0
Talleres
D
25.05.04
Arge Prim. División
Talleres
1-2
Instituto
L
24.08.04
Arge Prim. División
Talleres
1-1
Instituto
D
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