Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +4.0pp
Kilmarnock winOdds 19.6%
11.1%
DrawOdds 22.7%+4.0pp
26.7%
Hearts winOdds 57.7%
33.3%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Kilmarnock win9Draw15Hearts win6
- Road profile · Hearts
- Actual34.3%+0.1pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Kilmarnock4.50
- Hearts1.68
- Draw3.90
No movement since opening.
| Time | Kilmarnock | Hearts | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | 4.50 ▴ | 1.68 ▾ | 3.90 |
| 00:08 | 4.33 | 1.71 | 3.80 |
| 23:31 | 4.33 ▾ | 1.71 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 23:02 | 4.50 ▴ | 1.68 ▾ | 3.90 |
| 22:07 | 4.33 | 1.71 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 21:57 | 4.33 ▾ | 1.68 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 21:37 | 4.75 ▴ | 1.66 ▾ | 4.00 |
| 15:27 | 4.50 | 1.68 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 15:08 | 4.50 ▾ | 1.66 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 14:10 | 5.00 ▴ | 1.57 ▾ | 4.10 |
| 13:40 | 4.75 | 1.62 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 12:00 | 4.75 ▴ | 1.61 | 4.10 |
| 11:30 | 4.50 | 1.61 ▾ | 4.10 |
| 02:14 | 4.50 | 1.62 | 3.90 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Kilmarnock4.32
- Hearts2.85
Kilmarnock average odds 4.32 · actual win rate 0% / Hearts average odds 2.85 · actual win rate 60%
Last 5 Games
Kilmarnock
Hearts
0.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
60.0%0.8
Avg Scoredaway advantage
2.0-2.0
Avg Marginaway advantage
0.8Home Team Analysis
Average3L40%
2W0D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.03
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
0-1
St. Mirren
L
26.08.29
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
0-4
Dundee Utd
L
26.08.09
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
1-5
Celtic
L
26.05.13
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
3-1
Dundee
W
26.05.02
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
3-0
Dundee Utd
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.04
SPL L.
Hibernian
1-3
Hearts
W
26.08.27
UECL L.
Rapid Wien
1-1
Hearts
D
26.08.07
UEL L.
Benfica
6-1
Hearts
L
26.08.02
SPL L.
Aberdeen
2-1
Hearts
L
26.07.22
UCL L.
Sturm Graz
4-0
Hearts
L
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.03.15
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
1-0
Hearts
W
25.12.04
SPL L.
Hearts
1-1
Kilmarnock
D
25.10.19
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
0-3
Hearts
L
25.05.18
SPL L.
Kilmarnock
0-1
Hearts
L
25.01.26
SPL L.
Hearts
3-2
Kilmarnock
W
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