Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with market
Kisvarda winOdds 31.1%-11.1pp
20.0%
DrawOdds 24.5%-3.8pp
20.7%
Paks winOdds 44.4%-2.7pp
41.7%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Kisvarda win10Draw29Paks win12
- Road profile · Paks
- Actual34.2%+0.7pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Kisvarda3.00
- Paks2.15
- Draw3.75
Opening 2.75 → current 3.00 — moving toward Paks.
| Time | Kisvarda | Paks | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:08 | 3.00 | 2.15 ▴ | 3.75 |
| 23:01 | 3.00 ▴ | 2.10 ▴ | 3.80 |
| 18:00 | 2.88 ▴ | 2.05 ▾ | 3.75 |
| 11:30 | 2.80 ▴ | 2.10 | 3.75 |
| 23:20 | 2.75 | 2.10 | 3.50 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Kisvarda3.40
- Paks2.18
Kisvarda average odds 3.40 · actual win rate 20% / Paks average odds 2.18 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Kisvarda
Paks
20.0%
Win Rateeven
20.0%1.2
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.8-0.4
Avg Marginaway advantage
-0.2Home Team Analysis
Poor2D0%
0W2D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.30
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
1-1
Gyor
D
26.08.24
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
0-0
Debreceni VS…
D
26.08.09
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
2-4
Ujpest
L
26.05.17
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
0-1
Gyor
L
26.04.25
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
1-2
DVTK
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W2D2L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.29
NB I (HU)
Nyiregyhaza
1-1
Paks
D
26.08.17
NB I (HU)
Puskas Akade…
3-2
Paks
L
26.08.04
NB I (HU)
ZTE
5-2
Paks
L
26.07.31
UECL L.
Panathinaiko…
2-2
Paks
D
26.05.17
NB I (HU)
DVTK
1-3
Paks
W
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W0D4L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.02.28
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
2-1
Paks
W
25.11.09
NB I (HU)
Paks
5-3
Kisvarda
W
25.08.04
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
1-5
Paks
L
24.05.19
NB I (HU)
Paks
2-1
Kisvarda
W
24.02.25
NB I (HU)
Kisvarda
0-1
Paks
L
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