Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +8.1ppMoney flow: Mechelen
Lommel SK winOdds 35.4%-12.7pp
22.7%
DrawOdds 27.9%+8.1pp
36.0%
Mechelen winOdds 36.8%-7.4pp
29.4%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Lommel SK win22Draw111Mechelen win34
- Road profile · Mechelen
- Actual32.1%+3.5pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Lommel SK2.60
- Mechelen2.50
- Draw3.40
Opening 2.55 → current 2.60 — moving toward Mechelen.
| Time | Lommel SK | Mechelen | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03:24 | 2.60 ▴ | 2.50 | 3.40 |
| 18:14 | 2.50 ▾ | 2.50 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 13:40 | 2.55 ▾ | 2.45 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 05:50 | 2.60 ▴ | 2.50 ▾ | 3.30 |
| 04:14 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 3.30 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Lommel SK6.04
- Mechelen3.27
Lommel SK average odds 6.04 · actual win rate 40% / Mechelen average odds 3.27 · actual win rate 0%
Last 5 Games
Lommel SK
Mechelen
40.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
0.0%1.0
Avg Scoredeven
1.0-0.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-1.4Home Team Analysis
Poor33%
1W0D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.3
Avg ConcededStable
0.7
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
Belgian Pro L.
Lommel SK
0-1
Brugge
L
26.08.23
Belgian Pro L.
Lommel SK
4-0
Westerlo
W
26.08.17
Belgian Pro L.
Lommel SK
0-1
Charleroi
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor0%
0W2D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.29
Belgian Pro L.
La Louvière
2-2
Mechelen
D
26.08.23
Belgian Pro L.
Charleroi
2-0
Mechelen
L
26.08.09
Belgian Pro L.
KAA Gent
2-0
Mechelen
L
26.05.25
Belgian Pro L.
STVV
3-0
Mechelen
L
26.05.17
Belgian Pro L.
Anderlecht
2-2
Mechelen
D
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