Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Maccabi Tikva
Maccabi Tikva winOdds 43.4%
33.3%
DrawOdds 27.8%-6.9pp
20.9%
Hapoel Jerusalem winOdds 28.7%-6.5pp
22.2%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Maccabi Tikva win9Draw43Hapoel Jerusalem win18
- Road profile · Hapoel Jerusalem
- Actual26.2%-3.1pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Maccabi Tikva2.15
- Hapoel Jerusalem2.88
- Draw3.25
Opening 2.45 → current 2.15 — moving toward Maccabi Tikva.
| Time | Maccabi Tikva | Hapoel Jerusalem | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | 2.15 ▴ | 2.88 ▾ | 3.25 |
| 00:33 | 2.05 ▾ | 3.10 ▴ | 3.20 |
| 03:21 | 2.20 ▾ | 2.88 ▴ | 3.10 |
| 23:20 | 2.45 | 2.55 | 3.10 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Maccabi Tikva2.69
- Hapoel Jerusalem2.96
Maccabi Tikva average odds 2.69 · actual win rate 40% / Hapoel Jerusalem average odds 2.96 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Maccabi Tikva
Hapoel Jerusalem
40.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
20.0%1.2
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.6-0.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.8Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.8
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Israeli Premier L.
Maccabi Tikv…
1-2
Tiberias
L
26.08.23
Israeli Premier L.
Maccabi Tikv…
2-1
Kiryat Shmon…
W
25.05.04
Israeli Premier L.
Maccabi Tikv…
1-1
Ashdod
D
25.04.20
Israeli Premier L.
Maccabi Tikv…
1-2
Bnei Sakhnin
L
25.03.30
Israeli Premier L.
Maccabi Tikv…
4-1
Hapoel Hader…
W
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.8
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.16
Israeli Premier L.
Tiberias
2-2
Hapoel Jerus…
D
26.08.30
Israeli Premier L.
Hapoel PT
1-0
Hapoel Jerus…
L
26.05.14
Israeli Premier L.
Ashdod
0-1
Hapoel Jerus…
W
26.05.05
Israeli Premier L.
Netanya
1-0
Hapoel Jerus…
L
26.04.30
Israeli Premier L.
Bnei Raina
0-1
Hapoel Jerus…
W
H2H Analysis
Poor33%
1W1D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.3
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
25.04.27
Israeli Premier L.
Hapoel Jerus…
0-0
Maccabi Tikv…
D
25.01.12
Israeli Premier L.
Maccabi Tikv…
2-0
Hapoel Jerus…
W
24.09.29
Israeli Premier L.
Hapoel Jerus…
4-1
Maccabi Tikv…
W
Your feedback helps improve AI analysis quality