Man Utd vs Roma

United need Lisandro Martínez to balance stepping forward with protecting the space behind him. He has one goal in two season appearances; across his last two games he averaged 90 minutes, one tackle won, 4.5 clearances and four recoveries. His 12.5 progressive carries per game can also help United escape pressure. Opposite him, Donyell Malen has three goals and two assists in his last three, averaging 4.33 shots and 8.67 box touches. If Martínez advances without covering the space behind, Malen's runs become dangerous. Roma can divide the attacking work: Malen as the finisher, with Soule Matias supplying two assists and two key passes per game across his last three.

United's recent slide is stark: 0-1-4 in their last five, scoring 0.4 and conceding 2.4 per game, with three scoreless outings. Their last five at home are less bleak at 1-1-3, with 1.4 goals for and 1.6 against. Home losses still lead, but the defensive record is not as poor as the overall window. They lost 0-2 at Chelsea, with xG of 1.17 to 2.67. Their 1.86 xG across the last three games contrasts with the low scoring, making conversion crucial. Manuel Ugarte's knee injury also limits midfield options.

Roma's recent run contrasts with their season baseline: they are 4-1-0 across their last five, scoring 3.6 and conceding 1.4 per game, while their season record is 1-1-1. That describes the recent window, not a season-long level. Their last five away games are unbeaten at 2-3-0, with 2.2 goals for and 1.2 against per game. Across their last three, 61.7% possession and xG of 1.85 against xGA of 1.16 support a profile built on possession and chance control. In the 5-2 win at Udinese, Roma had one fewer shot but led 9-7 in shots on target and 2.84-1.81 in xG.