Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Mirassol
Mirassol winOdds 46.1%-1.5pp
44.6%
DrawOdds 27.0%+1.3pp
28.3%
Botafogo winOdds 27.0%+2.9pp
29.9%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Mirassol win74Draw166Botafogo win67
- Road profile · Botafogo
- Actual37.7%+10.2pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Mirassol2.05
- Botafogo3.40
- Draw3.50
Opening 2.20 → current 2.05 — moving toward Mirassol.
| Time | Mirassol | Botafogo | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:49 | 2.05 ▴ | 3.40 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 04:33 | 2.01 ▴ | 3.50 ▾ | 3.60 |
| 01:30 | 1.96 ▾ | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 19:41 | 2.01 ▴ | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 15:08 | 1.96 ▾ | 3.60 ▴ | 3.60 |
| 14:24 | 2.05 ▾ | 3.50 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 01:35 | 2.10 ▴ | 3.40 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 17:39 | 2.05 ▾ | 3.50 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 11:00 | 2.10 ▾ | 3.30 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 22:01 | 2.15 ▾ | 3.25 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 12:00 | 2.20 | 3.20 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 05:14 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Mirassol4.01
- Botafogo3.35
Mirassol average odds 4.01 · actual win rate 20% / Botafogo average odds 3.35 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Mirassol
Botafogo
20.0%
Win Rateeven
20.0%1.2
Avg Scoredeven
1.20.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.6Home Team Analysis
Poor2D20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.14
Camp (BR)
Mirassol
2-2
Vitoria
D
26.08.31
Camp (BR)
Mirassol
1-1
Palmeiras
D
26.08.17
Camp (BR)
Mirassol
1-5
Flamengo
L
26.08.14
Copa Libe
Mirassol
1-1
LDU Quito
D
26.07.30
Camp (BR)
Mirassol
2-1
Remo
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor2L20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.31
Camp (BR)
Flamengo
3-0
Botafogo
L
26.08.17
Camp (BR)
Vitoria
1-0
Botafogo
L
26.07.27
Camp (BR)
Cruzeiro
0-1
Botafogo
W
26.05.31
Camp (BR)
Bahia
2-1
Botafogo
L
26.05.24
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
1-1
Botafogo
D
H2H Analysis
Poor0%
0W2D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.7
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.02
Camp (BR)
Botafogo
3-2
Mirassol
W
25.11.02
Camp (BR)
Mirassol
0-0
Botafogo
D
25.09.18
Camp (BR)
Botafogo
3-3
Mirassol
D
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