Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Sample too small to judgeMoney flow: Varazdin
Varazdin winOdds 44.8%+0.7pp
45.5%
DrawOdds 27.6%+2.1pp
29.7%
Osijek winOdds 27.6%
50.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Varazdin win11Draw37Osijek win6
- Road profile · Osijek
- Actual32.5%-0.7pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Varazdin1.75
- Osijek3.80
- Draw3.50
Opening 2.10 → current 1.75 — moving toward Varazdin.
| Time | Varazdin | Osijek | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:08 | 1.75 ▾ | 3.80 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 22:38 | 1.83 ▾ | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| 05:45 | 1.85 ▾ | 3.50 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 09:00 | 2.00 ▾ | 3.25 ▴ | 3.25 |
| 23:20 | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Varazdin2.49
- Osijek3.60
Varazdin average odds 2.49 · actual win rate 40% / Osijek average odds 3.60 · actual win rate 60%
Last 5 Games
Varazdin
Osijek
40.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
60.0%1.4
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.80.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.2Home Team Analysis
Hot80%
4W1D0L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.8
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
0-0
Istra 1961
D
26.08.30
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
2-0
Rudeš
W
26.08.17
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
2-0
Rijeka
W
26.08.03
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
2-1
Hajduk
W
26.07.24
UECL L.
Varazdin
3-2
Jablonec
W
Away Team Analysis
Average2L40%
2W0D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.8
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Croatian Football L.
Rijeka
4-1
Osijek
L
26.08.24
Croatian Football L.
Hajduk
4-0
Osijek
L
26.08.09
Croatian Football L.
Rudeš
1-6
Osijek
W
26.08.02
Croatian Football L.
Gorica
0-2
Osijek
W
26.05.16
Croatian Football L.
Gorica
2-0
Osijek
L
H2H Analysis
Good60%
3W2D0L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededStable
0.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.18
Croatian Football L.
Osijek
0-2
Varazdin
L
26.02.08
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
2-1
Osijek
W
25.11.03
Croatian Football L.
Osijek
0-0
Varazdin
D
25.08.18
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
0-0
Osijek
D
25.05.18
Croatian Football L.
Varazdin
2-1
Osijek
W
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