Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Sirius win value +13.4pp
Orgryte winOdds 17.7%-11.0pp
6.7%
DrawOdds 20.7%-2.5pp
18.2%
Sirius winOdds 61.6%+13.4pp
75.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Orgryte win15Draw44Sirius win16
- Road profile · Sirius
- Actual36.3%+6.7pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Orgryte6.00
- Sirius1.41
- Draw4.75
Opening 5.50 → current 6.00 — moving toward Sirius.
| Time | Orgryte | Sirius | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:33 | 6.00 ▾ | 1.41 ▴ | 4.75 |
| 23:31 | 6.50 ▴ | 1.39 ▾ | 5.00 |
| 18:25 | 6.00 | 1.41 ▾ | 4.75 |
| 16:29 | 6.00 ▴ | 1.42 ▾ | 4.75 |
| 22:46 | 5.50 ▴ | 1.49 ▾ | 4.33 |
| 19:15 | 5.25 ▾ | 1.51 ▴ | 4.50 |
| 12:30 | 5.75 ▴ | 1.46 ▾ | 4.50 |
| 08:30 | 4.75 ▾ | 1.49 ▴ | 4.50 |
| 00:44 | 5.50 | 1.41 | 4.80 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Orgryte5.50
- Sirius1.73
Orgryte average odds 5.50 · actual win rate 0% / Sirius average odds 1.73 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Orgryte
Sirius
0.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
40.0%0.8
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.2-1.2
Avg Marginaway advantage
-0.4Home Team Analysis
Poor2D20%
1W3D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.8
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Alls
Orgryte
1-1
Hammarby
D
26.08.22
Alls
Orgryte
1-1
Halmstad
D
26.08.08
Alls
Orgryte
3-4
AIK
L
26.07.21
Alls
Orgryte
0-0
Djurgarden
D
26.07.12
Alls
Orgryte
4-3
BK Hacken
W
Away Team Analysis
Hot80%
4W0D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Alls
Vasteras
0-1
Sirius
W
26.08.15
Alls
Mjallby
4-3
Sirius
L
26.08.04
Alls
Halmstad
0-2
Sirius
W
26.07.19
Alls
Elfsborg
1-3
Sirius
W
26.07.12
Alls
Brommapojkar…
1-2
Sirius
W
H2H Analysis
Poor0%
0W0D1L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.0
Avg ConcededAverage
2.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.05.12
Alls
Sirius
2-0
Orgryte
W
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