Portsmouth vs Swansea

Waddingham Thomas offers a possible Portsmouth scoring route, but in a small sample: one goal in two season appearances, and one goal with 1.0 key passes per game across his last two, despite averaging only 14 minutes. His xG in that recent window was 0.1, so the record is not proof of a reliable scoring supply. Defensively, Dia Madiodio averaged 9.5 clearances in his last two, while Poole Regan won 7.5 of 8.0 duels per game. Whether Swansea’s forward play creates openings—and whether Waddingham Thomas can finish them—will depend partly on that defensive resistance.

Portsmouth’s last-five record of 3W-2D-0L is steadier than their season’s 5W-4D-4L, but it does not prove an attacking surge. Across the last four, xG was 1.12 and xGA 1.22, with 11.2 shots and 2.8 on target per game—below the season rates of 15.0 and 4.1. Their 1.8 goals per game in the last five at home offers a route forward, though they also conceded 1.4. Against Burnley they managed five shots and 0.25 xG; turning resilience into points requires better attacking quality.

Swansea’s season record of 8W-2D-3L and rates of 1.67 goals for and 1.08 against per game support their high standing. Away, however, their last five brought 3W-2L, with 1.4 goals for and 1.8 against per game—more vulnerable than the season baseline. They conceded six first-half goals and one after half-time across their last five, making a pressured start a concern. Portsmouth’s lack of threat against Burnley could ease Swansea’s defensive task, but one match does not erase the away weakness.

Across the last four meetings, Portsmouth have 1W-1D-2L, with seven goals for and five against; they have lost the last two. Their 1.8 goals per game in that sample shows they have scored, but the meetings span December 2024 to March 2026. Portsmouth are now unbeaten in five, while Swansea have the stronger season record, so the old pattern is not decisive. Swansea’s 4-0 win over Blackburn is impressive, but does not by itself settle their first-half away defensive issues.