QPR vs Burnley

QPR’s scoring route can run through Kone Richard’s finishing and Vale Harvey’s supply. Kone has 4 goals in 8 season appearances and 4 goals plus 1 assist in his last 3 games; Vale has 2 season assists and averages 1.67 key passes per game in his last 3, creating 1 big chance. Dunne Jimmy adds a defensive outlet, with 3 goals in 12 season appearances and 4.33 clearances per game in his last 3. Burnley can look to Hountondji Andreas, with 1 goal in his last 2, and Lucas Pires, with 4 season assists; Ramazani averages 3 shots per game in his last 3 but did not score in that span.

Across their last 5 games, QPR average 2.2 goals for and 1.8 against, with 1.57 xG and 1.03 xGA: a profile whose attacking output leads its defensive concessions. At home over their last 5, they have 3W-1D-1L, averaging 2.6 for and 1.0 against. Burnley’s 2.4 goals conceded per game away offers a route in, but QPR scored 5 second-half goals across those last 5 home games, so sustaining a lead remains a question.

Burnley’s 1W-2D-2L and 1.6 goals for and against per game in their last 5 look less bleak than their season record of 1W-6D-6L and 1.42 for, 2.08 against. But their last 5 away games bring the record back to 1W-1D-3L with 2.4 goals conceded per game. Their 1.63 xG per game over the last 5 has not translated into reliable scoring: against Portsmouth, 18 shots and 1.89 xG yielded a 0-0 draw.

In the last 2 meetings, QPR went 0W-1D-1L, scored 0 and conceded 5, failing to score in both. That is a warning, not a substitute for the current matchup: those games were between October 2024 and April 2025, and QPR now arrive with 3 wins in their last 5 home games. Burnley’s 2.4 goals conceded per game in their last 5 away games also makes it difficult to assume the old pattern will simply repeat.