Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Catanzaro win value +10.8ppMoney flow: Sampdoria
Sampdoria winOdds 47.1%-8.3pp
38.8%
DrawOdds 28.0%+2.0pp
30.0%
Catanzaro winOdds 24.9%+10.8pp
35.7%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Sampdoria win80Draw237Catanzaro win14
- Road profile · Catanzaro
- Actual27.7%+1.0pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Sampdoria1.86
- Catanzaro3.90
- Draw3.50
Opening 2.15 → current 1.86 — moving toward Sampdoria.
| Time | Sampdoria | Catanzaro | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:08 | 1.86 ▾ | 3.90 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 16:29 | 1.96 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| 22:01 | 1.96 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| 18:11 | 1.96 ▾ | 3.70 ▴ | 3.25 |
| 00:44 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Sampdoria3.32
- Catanzaro2.85
Sampdoria average odds 3.32 · actual win rate 0% / Catanzaro average odds 2.85 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
0.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
20.0%0.6
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.2-1.4
Avg Marginaway advantage
-0.6Home Team Analysis
Good60%
3W0D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.30
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
1-2
Juve Stabia
L
26.05.01
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
1-0
Südtirol
W
26.04.18
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
0-3
Monza
L
26.04.07
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
1-0
Empoli
W
26.03.23
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
2-1
Avellino
W
Away Team Analysis
4L Streak4L0%
0W1D4L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.2
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
Serie B (IT)
Südtirol
2-0
Catanzaro
L
26.08.31
Serie B (IT)
Pisa
2-1
Catanzaro
L
26.08.22
Serie B (IT)
Vicenza
3-2
Catanzaro
L
26.05.01
Serie B (IT)
Palermo
3-2
Catanzaro
L
26.04.19
Serie B (IT)
Juve Stabia
1-1
Catanzaro
D
H2H Analysis
Poor20%
1W4D0L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.6
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.01.26
Serie B (IT)
Catanzaro
0-0
Sampdoria
D
25.10.02
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
0-0
Catanzaro
D
25.05.04
Serie B (IT)
Catanzaro
2-2
Sampdoria
D
24.11.30
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
3-3
Catanzaro
D
24.05.11
Serie B (IT)
Catanzaro
1-3
Sampdoria
L
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