Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with market
Sao Paulo winOdds 51.7%-0.8pp
50.9%
DrawOdds 26.7%+1.6pp
28.3%
Inter winOdds 21.6%-6.4pp
15.2%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Sao Paulo win112Draw166Inter win66
- Road profile · Inter
- Actual28.2%-1.8pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Sao Paulo1.86
- Inter4.50
- Draw3.25
No movement since opening.
| Time | Sao Paulo | Inter | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:38 | 1.86 | 4.50 ▴ | 3.25 |
| 15:08 | 1.86 | 4.33 ▴ | 3.30 |
| 22:46 | 1.86 ▴ | 4.20 ▾ | 3.40 |
| 00:31 | 1.81 ▾ | 4.33 ▴ | 3.50 |
| 22:31 | 1.86 ▾ | 4.10 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 12:00 | 1.91 ▴ | 4.00 ▴ | 3.40 |
| 09:30 | 1.86 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Sao Paulo2.92
- Inter2.26
Sao Paulo average odds 2.92 · actual win rate 40% / Inter average odds 2.26 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Sao Paulo
Inter
40.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
20.0%1.0
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.40.0
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.2Home Team Analysis
Average2W40%
2W2D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
2-0
Atletico Min…
W
26.08.30
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
2-1
RB Bragantin…
W
26.08.16
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
1-1
Coritiba
D
26.07.23
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
1-2
Paranaense
L
26.05.24
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
1-1
Botafogo
D
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W1D3L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.13
Camp (BR)
Chapecoense
1-2
Inter
W
26.08.31
Camp (BR)
Bahia
3-2
Inter
L
26.08.10
Camp (BR)
Palmeiras
0-0
Inter
D
26.07.26
Camp (BR)
Paranaense
2-0
Inter
L
26.05.31
Camp (BR)
RB Bragantin…
3-1
Inter
L
H2H Analysis
Average40%
2W2D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.02
Camp (BR)
Inter
1-1
Sao Paulo
D
25.12.04
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
3-0
Inter
W
25.08.04
Camp (BR)
Inter
1-2
Sao Paulo
L
24.09.23
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
1-3
Inter
L
24.06.14
Camp (BR)
Inter
0-0
Sao Paulo
D
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