Lean Sporting CP, but toward a one-goal away win rather than a rout.
Shakhtar vs Sporting CP
Market signal
Implied vs actual win
- Games at matching odds
- Shakhtar11 gamesDraw116 gamesSporting CP19 games
Odds Flow
- Shakhtar3.30
- Sporting CP2.10
- Draw3.50
| Time | Shakhtar | Sporting CP | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.04 02:46 | 3.30 ▴ | 2.10 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 11.04 02:36 | 3.20 ▴ | 2.15 ▾ | 3.50 |
| 11.04 02:16 | 3.10 ▾ | 2.20 ▴ | 3.60 |
Odds · Last 5 games
- Sporting CPAvg 1.83· Win 60%
Team condition
The finish may hinge on Suarez Luis against Shakhtar’s defensive resistance. In his last three games he has averaged 3.67 shots and 2.33 on target, scoring four goals—a direct route to an away breakthrough. Irankunda Nestory has supplied the link, averaging 2.0 key passes in his last two. Shakhtar’s Tobias Vinicius, meanwhile, has averaged 1.33 tackles won and 1.67 interceptions in his last three. If that defensive work holds, a one-goal finish remains plausible; if it does not, Sporting CP may gain room to pull away.
Shakhtar’s best case today is their home resistance: four wins and a draw in their last five at home, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.4 per game. That home output is stronger than their last-five overall rate of 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. Yet their season record across three games has 4.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game, while their last-three box shows only 0.81 xG. Home results do not guarantee a steady supply of chances.
Sporting CP’s recent away record is impressive, but it is not the same picture as their overall form. They are 4W-1D in their last five away, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.4 per game; across their last five overall they are 3W-2L, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.2. The away profile is therefore stronger and tighter. Their season average across three games is 7.0 scored and 4.0 conceded, with 1.71 xGA, so defensive control is not assured. Three straight away wins are a strength, but do not erase the overall losses.