Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Sporting CP win value +10.9ppMoney flow: Sporting CP
Sporting CP winOdds 80.8%+10.9pp
91.7%
DrawOdds 12.2%-4.5pp
7.7%
Arouca winOdds 7.0%-3.0pp
4.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Sporting CP win60Draw26Arouca win25
- Road profile · Arouca
- Actual25.9%+0.6pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Sporting CP1.13
- Arouca13.00
- Draw8.00
Opening 1.15 → current 1.13 — moving toward Sporting CP.
| Time | Sporting CP | Arouca | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:33 | 1.13 | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| 04:04 | 1.13 | 13.00 | 7.50 |
| 00:58 | 1.13 ▾ | 13.00 ▴ | 8.00 |
| 00:08 | 1.15 ▴ | 12.00 ▾ | 7.50 |
| 19:25 | 1.13 ▾ | 13.00 ▴ | 7.50 |
| 14:10 | 1.15 ▾ | 12.00 | 7.50 |
| 08:50 | 1.17 | 12.00 ▴ | 7.50 |
| 02:07 | 1.17 ▾ | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| 19:15 | 1.19 ▴ | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| 00:31 | 1.17 ▾ | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| 14:00 | 1.19 ▴ | 11.00 ▾ | 7.00 |
| 12:30 | 1.17 | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| 12:00 | 1.17 ▾ | 12.00 ▴ | 6.50 |
| 23:20 | 1.19 ▴ | 11.00 ▾ | 6.25 |
| 04:44 | 1.15 | 13.00 | 7.00 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Sporting CP1.34
- Arouca3.74
Sporting CP average odds 1.34 · actual win rate 80% / Arouca average odds 3.74 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Sporting CP
Arouca
80.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
40.0%2.6
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.42.0
Avg Marginhome advantage
0.4Home Team Analysis
Hot5W100%
5W0D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
3.0
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.10
UCL L.
Sporting CP
3-1
Galatasaray
W
26.09.06
Prime Liga
Sporting CP
2-0
Nacional
W
26.08.23
Prime Liga
Sporting CP
3-1
Alverca
W
26.08.15
Prime Liga
Sporting CP
3-2
Guimaraes
W
26.08.01
Club Friendly (INTL)
Sporting CP
4-1
Forest
W
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.08
Prime Liga
Estoril
0-0
Arouca
D
26.08.24
Prime Liga
Porto
2-0
Arouca
L
26.08.09
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
0-1
Arouca
W
26.05.12
Prime Liga
Gil Vicente
1-3
Arouca
W
26.04.25
Prime Liga
Alverca
2-1
Arouca
L
H2H Analysis
Hot80%
4W1D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
3.2
Avg ConcededStable
0.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.01.25
Prime Liga
Arouca
1-2
Sporting CP
L
25.08.18
Prime Liga
Sporting CP
6-0
Arouca
W
25.02.16
Prime Liga
Sporting CP
2-2
Arouca
D
24.09.14
Prime Liga
Arouca
0-3
Sporting CP
L
24.03.11
Prime Liga
Arouca
0-3
Sporting CP
L
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