Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +7.0pp
Arezzo winOdds 42.4%+0.3pp
42.7%
DrawOdds 30.1%+7.0pp
37.1%
Südtirol winOdds 27.5%-3.1pp
24.4%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Arezzo win89Draw394Südtirol win86
- Road profile · Südtirol
- Actual26.2%+1.5pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Arezzo2.20
- Südtirol3.40
- Draw3.10
Opening 2.15 → current 2.20 — moving toward Südtirol.
| Time | Arezzo | Südtirol | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22:01 | 2.20 ▴ | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 23:20 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Arezzo4.07
- Südtirol3.59
Arezzo average odds 4.07 · actual win rate 40% / Südtirol average odds 3.59 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Arezzo
Südtirol
40.0%
Win Rateeven
40.0%1.0
Avg Scoredeven
1.0-1.0
Avg Marginaway advantage
0.4Home Team Analysis
Poor0%
0W0D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
3.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.31
Serie B (IT)
Arezzo
2-3
Palermo
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor0%
0W3D2L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.16
FA Cup (IT)
Genoa
1-0
Südtirol
L
26.08.31
Serie B (IT)
Benevento
1-1
Südtirol
D
26.08.16
FA Cup (IT)
Catanzaro
2-2
Südtirol
D
26.05.16
Serie B (IT)
Bari
0-0
Südtirol
D
26.05.01
Serie B (IT)
Sampdoria
1-0
Südtirol
L
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