Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Union win value +6.1ppMoney flow: Union
Union winOdds 40.1%+6.1pp
46.2%
DrawOdds 31.4%+3.0pp
34.4%
Independiente winOdds 28.5%-13.8pp
14.7%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Union win13Draw195Independiente win34
- Road profile · Independiente
- Actual27.7%-4.8pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Union2.25
- Independiente3.40
- Draw3.10
Opening 2.35 → current 2.25 — moving toward Union.
| Time | Union | Independiente | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04:49 | 2.25 ▾ | 3.40 ▴ | 3.10 |
| 04:38 | 2.50 ▴ | 3.00 ▾ | 3.00 |
| 03:24 | 2.40 ▾ | 3.20 ▴ | 3.00 |
| 13:40 | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.85 |
| 12:53 | 2.50 ▴ | 3.10 ▾ | 3.00 |
| 07:24 | 2.40 ▴ | 3.20 ▾ | 3.00 |
| 11:00 | 2.35 | 3.30 ▴ | 3.00 |
| 05:14 | 2.35 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Union2.88
- Independiente2.52
Union average odds 2.88 / Independiente average odds 2.52 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Union
Independiente
60.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
40.0%2.2
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.00.8
Avg Marginhome advantage
0.0Home Team Analysis
Good2W60%
3W1D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.2
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.08
Arge Prim. División
Union
3-2
Instituto
W
26.08.29
Arge Prim. División
Union
4-1
Sarmiento
W
26.08.11
Arge Prim. División
Union
1-2
Central Cord…
L
26.08.07
Arge Prim. División
Union
2-1
Lanus
W
26.05.03
Arge Prim. División
Union
1-1
Talleres
D
Away Team Analysis
Good2W60%
3W0D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.07
Arge Prim. División
Central Cord…
0-1
Independient…
W
26.08.18
Arge Prim. División
Lanus
1-3
Independient…
W
26.08.04
Arge Prim. División
Velez
1-0
Independient…
L
26.07.27
Arge Prim. División
Estudiantes
0-2
Independient…
W
26.05.11
Arge Prim. División
Rosario Cent…
3-1
Independient…
L
H2H Analysis
Poor0%
0W1D1L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
3.5
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.03.11
Arge Prim. División
Independient…
4-4
Union
D
24.11.06
Arge Prim. División
Independient…
3-0
Union
W
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