Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Draw value +7.9pp
Vaduz winOdds 39.3%-23.9pp
15.4%
DrawOdds 23.1%+7.9pp
31.0%
Thun winOdds 37.7%-2.9pp
34.8%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Vaduz win13Draw100Thun win23
- Road profile · Thun
- Actual37.5%+7.5pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Vaduz2.30
- Thun2.50
- Draw4.00
Opening 2.25 → current 2.30 — moving toward Thun.
| Time | Vaduz | Thun | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:58 | 2.30 ▾ | 2.50 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 12:30 | 2.35 ▴ | 2.45 | 4.00 |
| 12:00 | 2.32 ▾ | 2.45 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 04:00 | 2.40 ▴ | 2.40 ▾ | 4.00 |
| 03:31 | 2.05 ▴ | 2.75 ▾ | 4.10 |
| 02:30 | 2.01 ▾ | 2.85 ▴ | 4.10 |
| 21:11 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 4.00 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Vaduz3.67
- Thun3.05
Vaduz average odds 3.67 · actual win rate 40% / Thun average odds 3.05 · actual win rate 20%
Last 5 Games
Vaduz
Thun
40.0%
Win Ratehome advantage
20.0%2.4
Avg Scoredhome advantage
1.60.2
Avg Marginhome advantage
-0.6Home Team Analysis
Average2W40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Swiss Super L.
Vaduz
3-1
Lausanne
W
26.08.30
Swiss Super L.
Vaduz
5-2
Grasshopper
W
26.08.14
UECL L.
Vaduz
2-2
Inter Turku
D
25.08.15
UECL L.
Vaduz
0-1
AZ
L
25.07.25
UECL L.
Vaduz
0-1
Dungannon
L
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W0D4L
Avg ScoredStrong
2.0
Avg ConcededUnstable
4.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.06
Swiss Super L.
Sion
3-2
Thun
L
26.08.30
Swiss Super L.
St. Gallen
3-4
Thun
W
26.08.21
UEL L.
Poznan
7-0
Thun
L
26.08.14
UEL L.
Víkingur R
3-2
Thun
L
26.08.09
Swiss Super L.
Basel
4-2
Thun
L
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