Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Broadly aligned with marketMoney flow: Vasco
Vasco winOdds 62.4%-1.4pp
61.0%
DrawOdds 24.2%-3.6pp
20.6%
Coritiba winOdds 13.5%+2.5pp
16.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Vasco win77Draw34Coritiba win50
- Road profile · Coritiba
- Actual19.1%+0.8pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Vasco1.33
- Coritiba9.00
- Draw4.75
Opening 1.51 → current 1.33 — moving toward Vasco.
| Time | Vasco | Coritiba | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:14 | 1.33 ▾ | 9.00 ▴ | 4.75 |
| 07:45 | 1.35 ▾ | 8.50 | 4.50 |
| 06:57 | 1.37 ▾ | 8.50 ▴ | 4.33 |
| 05:33 | 1.41 ▴ | 8.00 | 4.33 |
| 05:08 | 1.39 ▾ | 8.00 ▴ | 4.33 |
| 03:34 | 1.42 ▴ | 7.50 ▾ | 4.20 |
| 01:59 | 1.41 ▾ | 8.00 ▴ | 4.20 |
| 21:05 | 1.45 | 7.00 ▾ | 4.20 |
| 15:38 | 1.45 ▾ | 8.00 ▴ | 4.20 |
| 13:59 | 1.46 ▾ | 7.50 ▴ | 4.10 |
| 13:40 | 1.49 ▴ | 7.00 ▾ | 4.00 |
| 10:33 | 1.46 ▾ | 7.50 ▴ | 4.10 |
| 10:17 | 1.49 ▾ | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| 22:01 | 1.51 ▾ | 7.00 ▴ | 3.90 |
| 16:31 | 1.53 ▴ | 6.50 ▾ | 3.90 |
| 13:30 | 1.49 ▾ | 7.00 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 12:30 | 1.53 ▴ | 6.50 ▾ | 3.90 |
| 12:00 | 1.49 | 7.00 ▴ | 4.00 |
| 12:00 | 1.49 ▾ | 6.50 | 4.00 |
| 09:00 | 1.51 | 6.50 | 3.90 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Vasco2.92
- Coritiba3.64
Vasco average odds 2.92 · actual win rate 40% / Coritiba average odds 3.64 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Vasco
Coritiba
40.0%
Win Rateeven
40.0%1.2
Avg Scoredaway advantage
2.0-0.8
Avg Marginaway advantage
0.2Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededAverage
1.6
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.08.30
Camp (BR)
Vasco
3-1
Cruzeiro
W
26.08.17
Camp (BR)
Vasco
0-3
Santos
L
26.07.26
Camp (BR)
Vasco
1-1
Mirassol
D
26.05.25
Camp (BR)
Vasco
0-3
RB Bragantin…
L
26.05.11
Camp (BR)
Vasco
1-0
Paranaense
W
Away Team Analysis
Average40%
2W2D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.4
Avg ConcededAverage
1.2
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.01
Camp (BR)
Remo
2-3
Coritiba
W
26.08.16
Camp (BR)
Sao Paulo
1-1
Coritiba
D
26.07.27
Camp (BR)
RB Bragantin…
0-0
Coritiba
D
26.05.31
Camp (BR)
Flamengo
3-0
Coritiba
L
26.05.17
Camp (BR)
Santos
0-3
Coritiba
W
H2H Analysis
Average50%
1W1D0L
Avg ScoredStrong
3.0
Avg ConcededStable
1.0
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.04.02
Camp (BR)
Coritiba
1-1
Vasco
D
23.09.22
Camp (BR)
Vasco
5-1
Coritiba
W
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