Market signal
Expected vs Actual Win Rate
Guimaraes win value +4.6pp
Guimaraes winOdds 62.1%+4.6pp
66.7%
DrawOdds 24.7%+0.3pp
25.0%
Moreirense winOdds 13.2%+2.8pp
16.0%
Color segment = actual vs expected (green above · gray below)
- Sample games
- Guimaraes win18Draw44Moreirense win25
- Road profile · Moreirense
- Actual32.7%+6.4pp
Odds Flow
Pre-match movement — falling odds indicate market support.
- Guimaraes1.49
- Moreirense7.00
- Draw3.80
No movement since opening.
| Time | Guimaraes | Moreirense | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13:40 | 1.49 | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| 12:30 | 1.49 | 7.00 ▴ | 3.75 |
| 00:20 | 1.49 | 6.50 | 3.80 |
Odds Trend
Win odds the market set — last 5 games in order (most recent at right)
- Guimaraes3.25
- Moreirense9.28
Guimaraes average odds 3.25 · actual win rate 20% / Moreirense average odds 9.28 · actual win rate 40%
Last 5 Games
Guimaraes
Moreirense
20.0%
Win Rateaway advantage
40.0%0.8
Avg Scoredaway advantage
1.0-0.4
Avg Marginhome advantage
-1.2Home Team Analysis
Average40%
2W1D2L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededStable
0.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.07
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
0-0
Casa Pia
D
26.08.23
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
1-0
Nacional
W
26.08.09
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
0-1
Arouca
L
26.05.12
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
0-1
Casa Pia
L
26.04.26
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
2-0
Rio Ave
W
Away Team Analysis
Poor20%
1W0D4L
Avg ScoredWeak
0.6
Avg ConcededUnstable
2.4
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.09.05
Prime Liga
Porto
2-1
Moreirense
L
26.08.31
Prime Liga
Casa Pia
0-1
Moreirense
W
26.08.17
Prime Liga
Arouca
4-0
Moreirense
L
26.05.12
Prime Liga
Tondela
2-0
Moreirense
L
26.04.26
Prime Liga
Benfica
4-1
Moreirense
L
H2H Analysis
Good60%
3W1D1L
Avg ScoredAverage
1.0
Avg ConcededStable
0.8
DateLeagueHomeScoreAwayResult
26.01.31
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
1-0
Moreirense
W
25.08.24
Prime Liga
Moreirense
2-0
Guimaraes
W
25.03.31
Prime Liga
Moreirense
2-2
Guimaraes
D
24.11.04
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
1-0
Moreirense
W
24.03.31
Prime Liga
Guimaraes
1-0
Moreirense
W
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